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Today’s entry: Biden’s poll numbers are so bad even the mainstream media are not trying to cover it up anymore. What I haven’t heard though is what’s happening at the state level other than when people are talking about Virginia’s race. Are his poll numbers down everywhere or is this a case of the red states really disliking him more than the blue states turning on him?
Bottom Line: It’s a good question, because to the extent that approval polls matter, it’s mostly about future elections. That includes whether members of Congress up for reelection next year want to back a president’s agenda. The reason why you rarely hear about approval ratings in individual states outside of election years is that polling costs money and there’s little desire to poll on presidential approval in an off-election year at the state level unless political polling for other considerations is already taking place. That’s why you’ll hear about Biden’s approval in Virginia in advance of the Gubernatorial election and if you’re paying close attention, New Jersey, but not generally elsewhere.
There is one accredited pollster which keeps an active state-by-state presidential approval poll rolling. It’s the firm Civiqs. Using their data as of the 19th, they’re showing a national approval rating for President Biden, at 39%, which is generally in line with nationally polling averages. Biden’s approval rating is currently 38% in Florida, so slightly worse than the national average which to your point isn’t surprising given Trump’s 3-point win over Biden in our state. What’s especially notable in Florida are the demographic breakouts.
- 18-34: 34%
- 35-49: 40%
- 50-64: 39%
- 65+: 39%
While he’s not popular anywhere, it’s really noteworthy that Biden’s approval rating is far and away worst among the youngest Floridians. I’ve never seen a Democrat president perform worst among the youngest voters in polling until now. There are a number of reasons that might be the case, but one might imagine Biden’s vaccine mandate, factors in heavily here. This is something I’ll watch going forward.
So back to the broader question. What about the blue states that voted for Biden? Have they turned on him? Yes, many have. The states that Biden won but where his approval rating is net negative are Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Wisconsin. That’s a total of 14 states Biden won last year in which he currently maintains net disapproval.
Notably, in four of those states, his approval rating is even lower than the national average. To give you an idea of what that represents in the context of the Electoral College in a Presidential election, a generic ballot Republican would be favored to defeat Joe Biden today 372-166. What we’re seeing with Joe Biden’s crashing approval ratings is far removed from the blue/red state types of discussions. There are only ten states in the country where people approve of the job Joe Biden is doing.
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