Today’s Entry: @brianmuddradio Seems like abortion did turn out to be that big of an issue in this election cycle. If not for SCOTUS ruling seems like the outcome would have been different.
Bottom Line: As part of the continued unpacking of what really happened in this year’s midterm elections, as votes are still being counted across the country in undecided races over a week later, we’re up to the questions about what issues played up. Up to this point I’ve spoken to these interesting and important to understand realities:
- Republicans easily won the congressional “popular vote” garnering 4.3% more votes than Democrats in these midterms
- Voters over 30, voted for Republicans in larger margins than ever before, while voters under 30 voted for Democrats in much wider margins than ever before
- Turnout is projected to have been 3.1% lower in the 2022 midterms compared to 2018’s
- Florida’s turnout was 4.4% lower than four years ago – led by Democrats turning out in significantly lower numbers in our state
The top takeaway from these results from my perspective is that this election cycle proved to be especially complicated with many nuances that impacted outcomes. As a result, virtually all broad-brush deductions, a la abortion as an issue being that big of a deal, are incorrect. Republicans didn’t win a greater share of the national popular vote in this cycle, than Democrats did in the 2020 election cycle, because of abortion. In that context, to the average voter, the abortion issue didn’t play up at all. But in reality, what happened is that it was a non-issue for most voters while it was a huge issue for a select group of voters.
The Kaiser Family Foundation has already produced a credible study of issues voting based on exit polling from this year’s midterm elections. When voters were pressed about the single biggest issue to them this cycle regardless of age they overwhelmingly cited inflation/the economy. Abortion was a distant fourth. For those who might be categorized as “single-issue voters” regardless of age or sex here’s a breakout of the top voting issue:
- Inflation/Economy (51%)
- Future of democracy
- Violent Crime
- Abortion
In these results we see that the first and third issues were winning issues for Republicans, while the second and fourth issues were winning issues for Democrats. This is supported by the fact that voters supported Republicans by greater than 4% nationally. There weren’t even half as many “top issues” or single-issue voters who were motivated by the abortion issue as compared to the economy. There’s also one other important nugget. The political split based on these issues. It’s not as though all economic voters broke for Republicans and all abortion voters voted for Democrats. Here’s the partisan break for voters who decided on these issues:
- Inflation economy: 66% GOP, 31% DEM
- Future of democracy: 59% DEM, 39% GOP
- Violent Crime: 57% GOP, DEM 40%
- Abortion: 70% DEM, 27% GOP
This is illustrative of the nuances I’ve already spoken of. Just under a third of economy voters broke for Democrats and abortion voters, for Republicans. Now, where the abortion issue did play up and was an especially meaningful factor was with voters under the age of 30. The ones who broke for Democrats at a rate that was greater than double Millennials at the same age. 51% of voters under thirty cited abortion as the top issue for them. So, on balance, abortion was a distant fourth issue overall – one that wasn’t even in the top five of issues for voters over 30, but that was the biggest issue for those under 30. And in answer to your question, was it enough to have changed the overall outcome of the midterms, with perhaps Republicans gaining control of the Senate? That’s unclear. Notably, while voters under 30 voted more heavily in favor of Democrats than anytime previously, the biggest decline in voter turnout when compared to the 2018 midterms was with voters under 30. So, the point is this. Abortion may have been a bigtime motivating factor for young voters who did show up, but it wasn’t even a big enough issue with that demographic to get anywhere close to as many of them out to vote as four years ago. Like much of what we’re learning about what really happened in this election cycle, it’s complicated.
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