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Today’s Entry: Brian, thank you for always delivering the facts! It’s always refreshing to hear them but especially during the silly season of an election cycle. Speaking of which...for all of the talk of a wave election (or even tsunami), is there an actual definition or number of seats that need to be won for an election to be officially referred to as a “wave”?
Bottom Line: Kudos for a great question! Having professionally covered elections, starting with the 1998 midterm election cycle, there are very few general election related questions I haven’t been asked. This is one of them. As I’ve mentioned in my Midweek Midterm Election Updates throughout the course of this cycle, just the normal showing is a rather strong result: Since the advent of the current two-party system (40 midterm elections) we've averaged the President's party losing 4 Senate seats and 30 seats in the House in midterm election cycles. For the sake of conversation, if Republicans were to exit this cycle with 54 senate seats and 232 House seats (218 are needed for a majority), many would claim that to be a “wave election” result. In a wave election, size matters, but in this case much of the perception behind it would come down to just how strong the Republican’s position is heading into this election cycle.
While Democrats have complete control of congress, and the federal government at large holding the presidency, it’s the slimmest one-party majority on record. Democrats hold the slimmest possible advantage in the senate with a 50-50 split and control coming only via the tie-breaking vote of the Vice-President. Meanwhile, the House majority is close to as slim as possible as well. Entering this cycle Democrats held only a 5-seat advantage (a total which currently stands at eight seats due to vacancies and special election results this year). The 212 seats Republicans currently hold in the House is already 34 seats more than they held heading into the record setting 2010 midterm elections. Likewise, Republicans held only 41 senate seats heading into that election cycle. Republicans currently hold 9 more. Due to the uneven nature of when senate seats are up for election, the cleanest way to compare election cycles is through House outcomes given that all seats are up every two years. In that 2010 election, Republicans won the highest share of House seats ever with 242. That’s the number to watch. Republicans need pick up only 30 seats – or right at the historic midterm average to obtain the second highest number of seats they’ve ever held and 34, would equal the all-time GOP record achieved in 2014. Surely, for conversation purposes, that outcome would constitute a “wave election”, which speaks to the overall subjective nature of a “wave” characterization.
According to Ballotpedia, the most comprehensive election encyclopedia, here’s the skinny on waves:
The term wave election is frequently used to describe an election cycle in which one party makes significant gains in the U.S. Senate or U.S. House.
There is no consensus on how many seats must be gained for an election to qualify as a wave, and some definitions are more expansive, also considering a party's performance in gubernatorial and state legislature races.
Factors identified as precipitators of a wave election include:
- The popularity of the president
- The number of open seats
- The success or failure of a major policy initiative
So given that the Republican’s position is as strong as an opposition party’s position could be entering a midterm cycle, it’s less about the total number of flips and more about the actual number of seats held in the new congress and state houses. Simply an average midterm outcome would lead to Republicans equaling the second most House seats ever held and would result in a solid senate majority. That by any objective measure should be classified as a wave. And if they set records? To the extent that a “tsunami” is a political term, I’d say that would qualify.
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