Q&A of the Day – Strongest Hurricanes to Hit Florida
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Today’s entry: @brianmuddradio There’s a lot of talk of Ian being a 100-year storm. How accurate is that?
Bottom Line: As Ian is preparing to make landfall as a major hurricane over the next day in the Tampa Bay area – there's no doubt this will have a significantly negative impact on the affected areas under even the best possible outcomes at this point. There’s no doubt a cat 3 hurricane making landfall in Florida is always a big deal, using the 100-hundred-year storm characterization certainly ups the ante. So is Ian, potentially a 100-year storm, or is that characterization a bit hyped? Let’s start by talking about the major hurricanes which are known to have historically made landfall in Florida.
Since hurricane tracking was first reported in 1851, a total of 36 major hurricanes, cat 3 or above, have made landfall in Florida. That means Florida averages a major hurricane landfall every 4.75 years. In that regard, a cat three hurricane making landfall isn’t at all unusual. And as Ian approaches the state it’s almost as if it’s right on cue. The last major hurricane landfall in Florida was Michael in 2018. But of course, not all major hurricane landfalls are created equal. There’s a huge difference based on geography both in terms of potential impact of the hurricane to size of the population. And that’s where the characterization of a potential 100-year storm may not be off base.
While Florida’s panhandle, and Florida’s Gulf coast generally, has been squared up by major hurricanes from time to time, including Michael’s strike at a cat 5 in 2018, the Tampa Bay metro hasn’t been in an awfully long time. You have to go back to 1950, and Hurricane Easy, to find a major hurricane which made landfall in the vicinity and even that one went to Cedar Key. It’s simply highly unusual for major hurricanes to find their way to Tampa Bay. So much so that the last major hurricane to hit the Tampa Bay metro was the Tarpon Springs hurricane of 1921. Widespread flooding was reported and eight people died in that hurricane. Of course, just about nothing in Tampa today looks today as it did then – starting with population. In 1921 Florida’s total population was 997,000. Or in other words, our state’s total population today was less than a third of what the Tampa metro’s population is today – at over 3.2 million. So yes, should Ian directly strike Tampa Bay it would be a 100-year storm, or 101 years to be exact.
The slightly improved news for the Bay is forecasting has shifted landfall slightly south of the bay to Venice. While its worse news for Southwest Florida, it’s slightly improved news for Tampa Bay. While top wind speeds are also what draw the lion's share of attention with hurricanes, it's the water that’s the biggest threat. Only 11% of hurricane related deaths are specific to wind damage. The balance is that threat from water – with storm surge specifically accounting for 49% of the loss of life. That’s why a major hurricane approaching Tampa Bay, is an even bigger deal than a major hurricane approaching many other coastal regions. There’s nowhere for the water to go. Let’s pray for the best for our friends, family and neighbors to our west while remaining smart ourselves on our coast.
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