As I mentioned on Friday... The fact of the matter is modeling has dramatically improved over the years. The fact of the matter is also that even the very best modeling contains meaningful margins of error. The more highly developed a center of circulation, the more reliable the modeling happens to be. That makes hurricanes more accurate to forecast than tropical storms and tropical storms more accurate to forecast than disturbances – which lack a center of circulation. With all of the advances in modeling here’s the reality on the ground. The five-day cone of error for a hurricane via the National Hurricane Center contains a margin of error rate of 210 miles. There’s an old joke that the safest place to be is in the center of the cone five days out. That’s to say a lot can and most often changes. This is a good time to highlight those realities as it’s a good exercise and reminder for those who’re both experienced with the unpredictability of hurricane forecasting and for those who’re new to all of this. At this time on Friday, Floridians were gearing up for what they thought would be Hermine. It turned out to Ian. At this time on Friday a projected landfall was for Wednesday morning. Now it's Friday morning. At this time on Friday the center point of the projected path was for a landfall in Cape Coral, now Cape Coral’s not even in the cone. It appears that as is usually the norm, Ian will pass within the original 5-day cone but just not where everyone was originally focusing, which is fortunate for South Florida, not so much for Florida’s northern Gulf coast.
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