Today’s entry: @brianmuddradio One way to tell if the polls are favoring dems again would be to check the top issues. Unless abortion is amazingly a top issue I’d think the GOP would be preferred on the others.
Bottom Line: You’ve brought up a good point. While an average of polls currently suggest parity between Democrats and Republicans nationally on the generic ballot, drilling down on the top issues identified by voters could be a tell as to where this election cycle is trending. Of course, the recent media narrative has been that the abortion issue has galvanized voters, especially women, into supporting Democrats this cycle. And while pundits and prognosticators still project Republicans taking control of the House if the elections were held today, all currently show Democrats retaining control of the senate were those elections today. So, what are the top issues currently, what party is preferred to deal with those issues, and do they contradict the current polling results? Let’s take a look.
For the purpose of this exercise, I’m going to use Gallup’s findings. While I don’t advocate using any one pollster for broad determinations, if we’re to use any one researcher on this topic, Gallup has polled on issues longer than any other pollster (nearly 90 years) and they have been historically the most accurate with regard to midterm elections. As Gallup explains: The "most important problem" question, one of several ways of measuring Americans' perceptions of the challenges facing the nation, has several significant benefits. The question builds on a significant historical trend. Gallup first asked it in 1935, making it one of Gallup's longest-lasting trend questions. A benefit of this question derives from its open-ended format, which provides valuable information on concerns that rise to the top of Americans' consciousness without prior prompting. Presumably, these issues will be important in the forthcoming midterm elections.
Here’s what Gallup has most recently sampled regarding the top issues to voters:
- 1st (tie): Inflation & Government Leadership – 17% each
- 3rd: Overall economy – 12%
- 4th: Abortion – 8%
- 5th (tie): Courts & Unity & Immigration – 6% each
- 8th (tie): Gun control & Fuel prices – 5% each
- 10th (tie): Race & Crime – 4% each
That accounts for the top issues of 90% of votes this cycle and most of the remaining top issues cited are different ways of stating the top issues already identified. As for the party favored to deal with those top issues...
- Democrats: Abortion, Courts, Unity, Gun Control, Race
- Republicans: Inflation, Government Leadership, Economy, Immigration, Fuel prices, crime
Here’s another way of evaluating this. Republicans have an edge on the top issue with 61% of the issues. Democrats have the advantage on the top issue with just 29% of Americans. That’s a pretty overwhelming storyline in which Republicans are generally far better positioned for this cycle with the biggest issues. Now, that said, there obviously are nuances to those issues. It’s not like everyone who says inflation is the biggest issue prefers Republicans to deal with it (which is a whole other issue), nor do all voters who say abortion is the biggest issue prefer Democrats to address it, though a vast majority of those people do. But still, the fact remains that Republicans have about a 32-point advantage on the top issues with voters, so why isn’t that seemingly translating to better generic ballot performance?
Even the most favorable polls for Republicans show an advantage for them in the mid-single digits, which indicates the GOP as a party, even within the same sample, aren’t seeing the advantage on the issues translate support more broadly. Well, you might have noticed what wasn’t a top issue for voters. Donald Trump or Hunter Biden. Or even election integrity concerns for that matter. Now don’t get me wrong, that doesn’t mean issues pertaining to those two don’t matter. They very much do, but they’re not election issues. Just as I’ve suggested the abortion issue is overblown because no one has yet successfully managed to pay their bills with an abortion, the same is true with the Mar-a-Lago Raid and Hunter Biden’s laptop.
As I’ve always said, elections are about issues and about the future. The Republican party hasn’t clearly created a national platform for this election cycle illustrating a plan to address the big issues a la a Contract with America or the Tea Party’s platform which were in place with the two best midterm cycles for Republicans post-WWII. Additionally, many key candidates in many states have been inclined to be distracted by Trump and Hunter news, allowing it to cloud their messaging which is a complete miss with potentially persuadable voters. One of the best examples of campaigning done right, in the face of distractions, is none other than our Governor Ron DeSantis. Despite being the highest profile candidate in the country running for election this cycle, never once has he allowed the focus to be taken off of the issues. He’s refused to engage in any 2024 conversation. He’s refused to wade into Trump-specific news – including the effort by many to create a public rift between the two, instead he’s remained laser focused on the issues. The net result, he’s polling an average of eight points higher than he was four years ago. While the GOP nationally isn’t going to present a platform for Republican candidates to run on, Governor DeSantis has presented the blueprint for how candidates should be running.
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