With over half of publicly traded companies having reported their earnings thus far this quarter, the average outcome is an increase of 6%. But even more impressive than earnings growth in a recession is revenue growth in a recession. That’s been twice as impressive. The average company is posting revenue growth of 12% year-over-year. Yes, some of the growth is international, but no, that doesn’t come close to explaining this all away. What’s happening is that small businesses are getting crushed at the expense of large ones which are gaining market share by taking their business. The most recent survey of the state of small business from the National Federation of Independent Businesses found it’s the worst on record in the 48-year-old survey. This is driven by a net 61% of small businesses saying business is declining, with a net 25% more small businesses saying earnings have already declined. This recession doesn’t impact everyone equitably, but it’s clear it’s hitting the little guy the hardest and this analysis is a reminder that if there are small businesses that are important to you, it’s a good time to prioritize patronizing them when you can. In the survey a third of all small businesses said they’re at risk of being forced to close within the next three months. Amazon.com does not carry that same risk. The impressive performance of corporate America is coming at the literal expense of smaller businesses. It’s a tale of two economies for sure.
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