Photo: Getty Images
Today’s entry: I was really interested to hear that the legislature is going to take up natural immunity. Finally! What I still haven’t heard is how long natural immunity from Covid lasts. Because we’re not hearing about a bunch of reinfections I’d guess it IS proving to be more effective than the vaccines.
Bottom Line: Your assumption is looking pretty accurate. The CDC’s current official line on reinfections is "cases of reinfection with COVID-19 have been reported, but remain rare." That stands in contrast to their official line regarding breakthrough cases from those who’ve been vaccinated against COVID-19. "Vaccine breakthrough infections are expected. COVID-19 vaccines are effective at preventing most infections. However, like other vaccines, they are not 100% effective". The contrast from the CDC’s characterization of reinfections being rare, as opposed to breakthrough cases being expected, says about as much as can be said without the CDC providing updated numbers for both categories which, for whatever reason, they’re currently not.
Prior to the advent of the delta variants, a study published in the medical journal The Lancet showed reinfection rates one year later for those who’d contracted COVID-19 was 0.65%. Meaning antibodies one year later appeared to have greater than 99% efficacy in prevention from reinfection. Both the duration and overall efficacy showed that, in fact, at least prior to the variants, natural immunity was superior to any of the available vaccines. That data certainly supports the validity of Florida’s state legislature considering natural immunity equitably with vaccinations. But about your question regarding the durability of natural immunity.
Just last month there was a new study in The Lancet addressing natural immunity. In the study, researchers found natural immunity could last for as few as three months and as many as 61 months, or longer than five years. While we obviously haven’t come close to being five years into this pandemic, they were able to model currently available data to project the long end of the curve. What it all comes down to is the individual and the strain as to if one’s at the early end of the curve or the long end. Across all models, the average duration of efficacy for natural immunity in combating COVID-19 was 16 months.
So yes, in all available research natural immunity has proven to be more effective and longer-lasting, however, the duration of efficacy specific to you is little more than a guessing game.
Each day I feature a listener question sent by one of these methods.
Email: brianmudd@iheartmedia.com
Gettr, Parler & Twitter: @brianmuddradio