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After Tuesday’s elections in Virginia and New Jersey made headlines and proved people are paying attention, we now have a temperature check for Florida in advance of next year’s midterms. Saint Leo University is out with the first polling post-Tuesday's elections in Florida with news that’s probably about what you’d expect given what we saw in other states. Governor DeSantis’ lead in a hypothetical matchup with Charlie Crist. As for Rubio’s reelection bid in the Senate, there's an 18-point lead over Val Demmings.
Now, a poll’s a poll and generally worth what you paid for it this far in advance of any election cycle. But here’s what’s most interesting in real-time. Ron DeSantis’ margin of victory in 2018 was less than 1%. Marco Rubio’s margin of victory in 2016, sub 8%. Just as we saw Virginia and New Jersey move to the right by double-digits, polling is suggesting something similar is happening in Florida a year in advance of our elections. I don’t have to tell you what an already right-leaning state like ours moving ten points or so further to the right might mean.
But while it ultimately doesn’t matter if DeSantis or Rubio are reelected by a margin of 1 vote or 1 million, the implications beyond their elections are many if that kind of momentum would carry into next year’s cycle. Aside from the potential implications down-ballot in state legislative races, it’d indicate at least one additional Congressional pickup by Republicans based on the current map.