MIAMI -- In its latest advisory, the National Hurricane Center puts top winds for Potential Tropical Cyclone Six at 40 miles per hour, just above the threshold for a tropical storm. It's expected to pass the southern coast of Puerto Rico tonight on its way to Hispaniola, where the landmass may weaken it somewhat. Here's the latest advisory:
BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Intermediate Advisory Number 5A...
Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
800 PM AST Tue Aug 10 2021
Corrected direction of motion in summary section.
...DISTURBANCE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO...
...SYSTEM LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...17.6N 66.1W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM SE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque
eastward and on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo eastward
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo to
the Dominican Republic/Haiti border
* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to
Gonaives
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
Interests elsewhere in Haiti and the Bahamas, as well as in eastern
and central Cuba, should monitor the progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the disturbance was located by an Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and Doppler radar data from
San Juan near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 66.1 West. The system
is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue tonight. A turn back toward the
west-northwest is forecast to occur early Wednesday, with a
west-northwestward motion continuing during the next few days. On
the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to pass near the
southern coast of Puerto Rico tonight and early Wednesday, be near
or over Hispaniola on Wednesday, and be near the southeastern
Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands on Thursday.
Data from the aircraft and surface observations indicate that
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next
day or so and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm
later tonight. Some weakening is likely while the system interacts
with Hispaniola on Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the
aircraft and earlier surface observations is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km),
mainly northeast of the center. During the past few hours, a
sustained wind of 38 mph (61 km/h) and a gust to 49 mph (79 km/h)
were measured by a Weatherflow observing station at Sandy Point on
the western end of St. Croix. A wind gust to 47 mph (76 km/h) was
reported near Yabucoa in southeastern Puerto Rico.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Six can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1,
WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.
RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:
Over the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the
Dominican Republic...2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of
6 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small
stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and the
potential for mudslides across the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
and the Dominican Republic.
Over Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, eastern Bahamas, and eastern
Cuba...1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas
in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico during the next several
hours, and in the warning area in the Dominican Republic by early
Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible elsewhere along
the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, the
Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas beginning late
Wednesday.
SURF: Swells generated by the disturbance are affecting portions of
the Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to spread across the
U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today and reach portions of
Hispaniola on Wednesday, where they could cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
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Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
Photo: NHC