Today’s entry: Brian, I’ve enjoyed listening to you for years, largely because of your analytical approach to information. Every now and then I wish you’d just tell us what your gut is telling you. Now is one of those times! The suspense is killing me. Forget analytics for a minute. What do you really think is going to happen on Election Day?
Bottom Line: There really isn’t separating the two with me. My opinions and my personal feelings are formulated through the premise of what I’ve learned and what I know. The irony of discussing possible election outcomes is not knowing with certainty how people voted until votes are counted. At the same time, history and trends are strong and established enough so that I correctly identified George W. Bush as the likely winner in 2000 and 2004. Same with Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012. And yes, on Election Day 2016, I correctly suggested Hillary Clinton would be the likely winner of the popular vote with Donald Trump winning the Electoral College. None of that has been by chance. But still, they’ve all just been well-reasoned hypothesis, not historical trends and formulas which determine elections.
Given that we don’t truly know what will happen, you might say that my Election Day stories based on analytics are my “gut” feelings. They’re all designed to give you an idea of what I believe is most likely to happen with tons of data and countless hours of research over parts, of now, four decades behind those “feelings”.
With that in mind, independent of numbers specifically, my gut tells me that Joe Biden will win the popular vote but Donald Trump will win the Electoral College. Republicans will lose seats but retain control of the Senate and gain ground in the House of Representatives, but control is decided by fewer than ten seats either way.
Biden appears likely to perform better than Clinton with seniors and white women. Trump appears to perform better with Black and Hispanic voters than he did four years ago. Should those themes hold true what will the net-net of it be, especially with likely higher turnout than four years ago? This is where I revert to historical trends. President Trump has an incumbency advantage, history shows that 65% of incumbent presidents win reelection.
2020 has been the ultimate reminder that anything can happen.
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