We’re getting down to crunch time in the Presidential election. That means eyes are already on Florida wondering how we'll be voting or have already voted as the case may be.
First, let's look at a few key developments. Republicans have narrowed the Democrats' lead in voter registration from 2.5% in 2016 to 1.3% today. Furthermore, nearly 1.2 million votes by mail have already been cast according to the Florida Division of Elections and Democrats have cast 275,000 more votes than Republican by mail thus far.
Democrats have clearly built a successful vote by mail campaign and have wasted no time in casting their votes. It’s somewhat remarkable to think that early voting won’t even begin until a week from Monday and yet we’re talking about well of a million Floridians having already voted but that’s the case. Republicans have traditionally held an advantage in voting by mail, Democrats have led in early voting and Republicans have turned out in higher numbers on Election Day. Republicans will need to flip the Democrat’s advantage in Early voting in order to be competitive given the substantial vote by mail lead Democrats are currently running up.
Around the state this week we saw the first poll released in Florida’s 21st showing Incumbent Democrat Lois Frankel with a 28-point lead over Republican challenger Laura Loomer. However, Republicans are still showing leads in Florida’s 18th (Mast), 26th Gimenez, and 27th (Elvira Salazar). The 26th and 27th would be GOP pickups and are currently the only Congressional races in Florida pacing towards a potential flip. Now, excluding the outlier-Quinnipiac polling, President Trump is pacing in line with where he was four years ago today. He won the election in Florida by 1.2%, we’re setting up for a similar result this year.
Trends now matter more because of Floridians officially voting by the millions already.
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