Takeaways From Florida’s Primary Election

While we are now more than three weeks past from Florida’s August primaries, we just had the state-certified results finalized from our elections. While what happens in August isn’t always a precursor to November’s results, there are several takeaways from what happened in August which both parties should be mindful of over the final two months of the cycle. 

First of all, turnout for Florida’s August primaries was 28%, that's the highest since 2002. Also, nearly 42,000 more Democrats voted than Republicans statewide, that's the first time in the August primaries in over twenty years. Furthermore, Democrats had the advantage among first-time voters and a record 68% of all Democrats votes were cast by mail.

All of that news appears to be good for Democrats. It confirms my initial takeaways that suggested Democrats didn’t just trade in-person voters with their vote by mail effort, they expanded their reach. It shows that the tactics used by Democrats to activate their base to vote by mail is effective and can be built on for the general election. It also shows that they haven’t just registered more new voters than Republicans in Florida this year, they're getting them to vote. That being said, the outcome wasn’t so significant that Republicans should panic. Some factors which provide some solace for the GOP include a lead in turnout in the August primaries in both 2008 and 2012 when Barak Obama went on to win Florida in the general election. Plus, Trump won Florida by 113,000+ votes nad Republicans have narrowed the partisan registration gap in Florida by 0.8% since the 2016 election.

This leaves Democrats with a double and triple down on the vote-by-mail effort successfully implemented for the primaries and Republicans need to convince usual voters by mail that their vote will count if they vote by mail. The next voter registration update from the State of Florida will be the next big tell as to which party has been most successful most recently.

Photo by: Getty Images North America

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