Historically, 65% of Presidents who run for re-election win. So, it's safe to say that the odds are President Donald Trump will be re-elected in 2020.
That becomes the baseline for President Trump entering this cycle. The 65% is based on nearly two-thirds of all incumbent Presidents who’ve run for re-election winning. There are other numbers that come into play, based on a president’s approval ratings as we close in on Election Day. I've tracked President Trump’s reelection odds-based upon history and approval ratings. As of today, 48% is based on average polling and 67% based on likely voters.
As has consistently been the case, his performance among likely voters is stronger, and that’s reflected with President Trump still being a favorite to win based on likely voters alone. To the extent that the challenger can impact the race, that provides the road map for Democrats. Given that the odds are best for President Trump with likely voters, a Democrat who can most successfully appeal to non-likely voters would be the best opportunity for Democrats in the upcoming election.
The current average polling with the changes since last week looks like this:
- Biden:29% (+2)
- Warren:23% (-4)
- Sanders:15% (flat)
- Buttigieg:6% (+1)
- Harris:5% (+1)
Now this one’s interesting for some clear reasons. Weren’t we just conditioned to the notion that Joe Biden was yesterday’s news and Elisabeth Warren was the front-runner? After all, the third-rated show Tuesday night, behind NCIS and FBI, featured a debate that targeted Warren as though she was the front-runner. Well, she’s not anymore. At least for the moment. The next several days will be interesting as full post-debate data rolls in.
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