AccuWeather's Hurricane forecast was highly accurate in predicting the overall 2018 Atlantic Hurricane season. For most, the original CSU forecast is the first official hurricane forecast of the year. As for my interest, I simply care about accuracy regardless of where it comes from.
Over the year, these forecasts have improved and they lend for additional credibility to what they’re projecting for 2019. For this year, CSU predicts.
- 13 Tropical storms
- 5 Hurricanes
- 2 Major hurricanes
- Chance of US landfall for a major hurricane 48%
- Chance for East coast including Florida 28%
Like the AccuWeather forecast, everything is down a bit from a year ago. Perhaps most importantly, they’re suggesting for the first time in years that the odds are more unlikely than not that we’ll be spared a major hurricane. The historical average for a major hurricane striking the US is 52%.
While hurricane season doesn’t “officially” start until June it’s worth a reminder that for four consecutive years we’ve had our first named storms, and last year first landfall, in May.
Photo by: NOAA via Getty Images