In June I brought you the changes in Florida’s voter registration over time. To the surprise of many, Republicans had outperformed Democrats in voter registration in Florida since the 2016 election. Midterm Election Day is right around the corner, so, here’s another update.
In 2016 here was the breakdown:
- Democrats: 4,905,705
- Republicans: 4,575,277
- Independents/Other: 3,478,203
- Democrats: 4,875,282
- Republicans: 4,626,815
- Independents/Other: 3,591,784
If you’re keeping score here’s the change against the 2016 election:
- Democrats: -30,423
- Republicans: +51,538
- Independents/Other: +113,581
Surprised yet? As a reminder in 2016 Florida broke for Donald Trump, Marco Rubio and generally contributed to most Republicans being elected top to bottom in the US since 1928. In terms of partisan registration since, there’s been a net change of 81,000 to the general benefit of Republicans in the state.
Now, not all registered partisans vote straight tickets and how independents and third-party voters break in close elections will often dictate the outcomes, but I bet there are a bunch of people surprised by this information. It also helps explain why we’re seeing district 18, 26 and 27 very much in play for Republicans in a cycle that should historically favor Democrats. Florida has been a center-right state for nearly two decades now and the trend in the direction is continuing by way of voter registration.