Throughout this midterm election cycle, I’ve provided a historical perspective to demonstrate the likelihood of Democrats winning the midterms. Here it is if you haven’t caught it previously.
There are only three times that the incumbent President's party has gained seats. One was in 1934 during FDR's first term. The second time was in 1998 during Bill Clinton's second term. Lastly, in 2002 during George W. Bush's first term. Thus only 3 out of 39 midterm elections have resulted in the President's party gaining seats. Here's another way of looking at it, history suggests there's a 92% chance Democrats will gain Congressional seats this year.
Now here’s the question I’m posing and pondering. Is this year, this cycle, set to be the fourth? Each of the previous three had massive macro catalysts. The Great Depression. The botched impeachment of Bill Clinton. 9/11. Has the “Get Trump” mob in the Senate, Muller, etc., combined with backlash against what’s been done to Brett Kavanaugh and his family during this nomination process created a catalyst that compares? Are we at an inflection point in American history? If you think the answer is yes, 1998 is your comparison. In 1998, the economy was booming and Americans weren’t happy with Bill Clinton’s lies, hearing about his evidence on Monica’s dress and Oval office conduct but they also didn’t want him impeached.
Here we are with a booming economy and while President Trump’s not as personally popular as Clinton was, there’s also no indication most Americans want him impeached and there’s a growing indication that there’s backlash to the treatment of Brett Kavanaugh. It’s possible we’re at one of those points but I’m not certain. What are your thoughts?