An Update on Florida’s Biggest Races

posted by Claudia Mendoza - 

We’re now under five weeks before the general election. Florida’s two biggest races this year are exact opposites of one another. A year ago, just about everyone thought we’d have a Nelson vs Scott match-up for the US Senate. A race featuring two of the biggest names in Florida politics. Conversely, a year ago, few Floridians were even familiar with the names Gillum and DeSantis let alone of the belief that they would be their party nominees. 

Let's start with Florida’s senate race. We’ve had three polls roll in within the past week. Here’s the current average.    

  • Nelson: 47% (flat) 
  • Scott: 45% (+1)   
  • Other 2%    
  • Undecided: 6%   

All three polls were pre-debate, so to an extent, there might be any impact from it. We’ll have to wait until next week to see. The race tightened this week, mainly because the Q poll from the previous week showing Nelson with a seven-point lead was doubtless an outlier, but the recent trend remained. Bill Nelson led in all three polls that came out and retains a slight lead to hang onto his seat heading into the final month of the campaign. This has all the makings of a 1%ish finish one way or another. Something Governor Scott’s familiar with. 

Now, let's move on to Governor’s race. We’ve had four new polls roll in over the past week in the Governor's race and they’re still all pointed in the same direction. However, there's a bit of a shifting tide towards a close election.  

  • Gillum: 46% (-2%)     
  • DeSantis: 44% (+2)    
  • Other: 2%    
  • Undecided: 8%   

Once again, getting the Q poll that showed Gillum with a ridiculous nine-point lead out of the mix significantly changes the dynamic. Yet, the news is still a mixed bag at best for DeSantis. Andrew Gillum remains the front-runner and has still led in every poll conducted by every pollster since the primaries. DeSantis is very much within striking distance and there are more undecided voters in this race, which you’d expect given the much lower profiles of these candidates prior to winning the primaries. What’s increasingly looking likely is that these two races could break the same way, meaning the potential for crushing loses for one party and huge wins for the other.  

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