Brett Kavanaugh's Odds of Being Confirmed

I'll start by saying that I fully expect that Brett Kavanaugh will be confirmed as the next Supreme Court Justice. In a few words, he's well known and vetted. Anything that'd be inherently disqualifying would already be known. That being said and using history as a guide, Brett's odds of being confirmed are 68%. 

Why 68%?  

There have been 113 confirmed Supreme Court justices with 32 nominees who weren't confirmed at the time of the original nomination. Of those 32 non-confirmations, seven of the candidates did eventually win confirmation to the court. So, in full context, there's an 83% chance that Brett Kavanaugh will be a Supreme Court Justice.  

Some might be surprised to know that despite the perception of modern politics being more partisan and divided, most rejections took place in the first half of our country's history. 21 of the 32 nominees to not receive initial confirmation were nominated prior to 1900. 

Photo by: Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty Images

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