According to a newly released survey by Gallup, October was the worst month of the year for Republicans.
Gallup provides a pretty straightforward party ID update on a month-to-month basis.
All throughout the year, the news has been interesting, telling and instructive. Despite the general media narrative (Trump sucks and such), GOP ID had actually averaged above the levels registered on Election Day 2016 - when Republicans won more elections than at any other time since the 1920's.
But....... that all came crashing down in October.
Here's where we were on Election Day 2016:
36 percent Independents
31 percent Democrats
27 percent Republicans
6 percent third party
Last month:
40 percent Independents
30 percent Democrats
29 percent Republicans
1 percent third party
And today:
42 percent Independents
31 percent Democrats
24 percent Republicans
3 percent third party
The last time GOP party ID was as low as 24 percent was July of 2015 when just 23 percent of adults ID'd as Republicans.
Democrats haven't capitalized on the defections (at least not directly at this point) which is important. There are as many Democrats today as there were one year ago. The difference is that more Republicans have been turned off enough to suggest they're now third party.
The go-to would be to suggest that this has to do with President Trump -- but that's almost certainly not the case.
As tracked throughout the year - GOP ID had actually been higher than Election Day until last month. Instead, I think this is a product of Republican failures on healthcare and tax reform.
Again, the top three agenda items Americans wanted on Inauguration Day were
- Healthcare Reform
- Tax Reform
- SCOTUS vacancy addressed
We've so far only gotten #3 and frustrations have been noticeable from the President to the average engaged voter.
That puts added emphasis on the importance of the Republicans roll-out of tax reform today.