It's officially September, and the calendar is telling us that we're already halfway through hurricane season.
However, the calendar and the timing of tropical systems don't go hand-in-hand. In fact, September is notable for two reasons:
- Historically speaking, September is the most active month of hurricane season
- The absolute historic peak of hurricane season is September 10th
So how much of the season is really left by using historical storm activity as a guide?
Going back to 1851, and tracking the Atlantic hurricane season:
- There have been 574 tropical storms in September
- That equals 35 percent of all tropical storms
- 396, or 40 percent, of all hurricanes formed in September
That's an average 3.5 tropical storms and 2.5 hurricanes during the month.
But back to the original question... How far through the season are we statistically?
The answer is only about 33 percent based on hurricane development and 38 percent based on tropical storm development.
So we've got a lot more ahead of us, but once we cross the mid-point of September, the odds shift the other way quickly.