5 PM Sun: Debby Aims For Tally, Storm Surge And Tornadoes Over Peninsula

MIAMI - -Debby continues to intensify. The tropical storm's top winds have reached 65 mph. The storm is moving NNW at 12 miles per hour, centered 120 miles W of Tampa.

Debby is expected to make landfall tomorrow morning south of Tallahassee as a Category 1 hurricane.

Right now, squall lines are sweeping across the Florida peninsula. Storm surges are forecast in several west coast locations, which are also under a tropical storm warning. Warnings in the Keys have been lifted. Most of the peninsula is under a tornado watch until 8 pm Eastern time.

Here's the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center:

BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number 10

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024

500 PM EDT Sun Aug 04 2024

...DEBBY EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT AND MAKE LANDFALL

IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA ON MONDAY...

...WILL BRING A MAJOR FLOOD THREAT TO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED

STATES...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...27.7N 84.4W

ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA

ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Watch from the mouth of the Saint Mary's River to

South Santee River South Carolina has been changed to a Storm Surge

Warning.

The Hurricane Warning is extended west of the Ochlockonee River to

Indian Pass.

The Tropical Storm Watch from west of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach

Florida has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Florida and Georgia

coast from Ponte Vedre Beach to the Savannah River.

The Tropical Storm Warning for the Dry Tortugas is discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Warning south of Bonita Beach Florida is

discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...

* Florida coast from the middle of Longboat Key northward to Indian

Pass including Tampa Bay

* Georgia and South Carolina coast from the Mouth of the St. Mary's

River to South Santee River South Carolina

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* Florida coast from Bonita Beach northward to the middle of

Longboat Key, including Charlotte Harbor

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Florida coast from the Suwannee River to Indian Pass

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* Florida coast south of the Suwannee River to Yankeetown

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Florida coast south of the Suwannee River to Bonita Beach

* Florida coast from west of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach

* Ponte Vedre Beach to the Savannah River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Savannah River to South Santee River South Carolina

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life

and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible

within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening

inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,

during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a

depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather

Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov.

This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these

areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property

from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.

Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local

officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-

threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the

coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National

Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov.

Interests elsewhere in Florida and the southeastern coast of the

United States should monitor the progress of this system.

Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today

or tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible

inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your

local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was

located near latitude 27.7 North, longitude 84.4 West. Debby is

moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A gradual decrease

in forward speed with a turn toward the northeast and east is

expected on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center

will move across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico through tonight and

reach the Florida Big Bend coast around midday Monday. Debby is

then expected to move slowly across northern Florida and southern

Georgia Monday and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher

gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast, and Debby is expected to

become a hurricane tonight, with additional strengthening likely

before it reaches the Florida Big Bend coast on Monday. Weakening

is expected on Monday and Tuesday after Debby moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)

from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone

Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning

area and possible in the hurricane watch area early Monday, with

tropical storm conditions expected to arrive this evening. Tropical

storm conditions are expected to spread northward over the tropical

storm warning area along the Gulf coast through tonight, and begin

along portions of the tropical storm warning area along the Atlantic

coast by late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along

the coast of South Carolina within the tropical storm watch area

late Monday night.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause

normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters

moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the

following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if

the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Suwannee River to Ochlockonee River, FL...6-10 ft

Yankeetown, FL to Suwannee River, FL...5-8 ft

Ochlockonee River, FL to Indian Pass, FL...4-6 ft

Tampa Bay...3-5 ft

Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft

Bonita Beach, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...2-4 ft

Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River, SC...2-4 ft

Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,

please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,

available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12

inches, with maximum amounts of 18 inches, across portions of

northern Florida and southeastern North Carolina through Friday

morning. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable

flash and urban flooding, with significant river flooding expected.

Across portions of southeast Georgia and South Carolina, 10 to 20

inches of rainfall, with local amounts to 30 inches, are expected

through Friday morning. This potentially historic rainfall will

likely result in areas of catastrophic flooding.

For western Cuba, additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, with

localized higher amounts, will be possible through today. This will

result in isolated to scattered areas of flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding

associated with Tropical Storm Debby, please see the National

Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk

graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over central and northern

Florida and southern Georgia tonight and Monday. The threat will

spread northeastward into coastal Georgia and parts of South

Carolina on Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Debby are expected to affect much of the

Gulf coast of Florida through Monday. Swells will begin to affect

the Southeast U.S. coast on Monday and continue through the middle

of the week. These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening

surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your

local weather office.


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