Florida’s Economic Status & Pausing for Peace? – Top 3 Takeaways – July 27th, 2026
Takeaway #1: We’re #14!
Franklin Pierce. Pete Rose. Dan Fouts. Oscar Robinson. Tony Stewart. What do these people have in common? They’re the most famous #14’s in history...or in the case of Franklin Pierce – the only #14 in history as he was the 14th President of the United States. The others were all arguably the best athletes sporting the number 14 in their respective sports historically. My point in mentioning them is this... it’s not often in life you’ll rank 14th in something and claim bragging rights...however there are times when being #14 is awesome. In the case of Florida’s economy...this is one of those times. The latest data from the Florida Chamber of Commerce shows our state’s economy having reached remarkable new comparative levels. Specifically, over the past year Florida’s economy has grown from the 16th largest in the world to the 14th largest in the world passing the Australia and Mexico to get there. Aside from the fact that when you have Florida’s economy passing the economies of two significant countries within a year – it’s a remarkable thing...it also tells you our state’s economy is growing far faster than those of other countries and for that matter other states. Because we live here, it’s easy to take for granted just how impressive Florida’s economic story is and has been. Consider this. Over the past decade Florida’s economy has averaged growing at a 3.9% rate annually – that compares to an average 2.6% growth rate for the United States. What does that mean? Florida’s economy has grown at a pace that’s been 60% faster than our country overall over the past decade. That’s propelled the Free State of Florida away from simply our position as a state into the conversation of global economic powerhouses. And it’s on that note that we can consider this to see just how impressive Florida’s story is... Florida’s current population is about 23.5 million people. Australia’s population totals 27.5 million people, while Mexico’s population is a massive 132 million! For Florida’s GDP per capita to pass those much more populated countries is an uber impressive thing (especially when you consider that Florida has the largest retiree population in the country and thus is the second oldest state to only Maine). I’ve long said that Florida’s story is a great one that continues to get better – this historic milestone is the latest example of this...and btw, the next country for Florida to aim to pass...it’s none other than Canada which has a population that’s 1.8 times larger than Florida. It’s orange juice vs. ice wine and with the trajectory that Florida’s on compared to Canada’s weak economy generally with a bunch of semi-socialist policies...it’s only a matter of time before we take down the Canadians too. While Florida’s economy has grown at an average rate of 3.9% for a decade...Canada’s economy has only grown at an average 1.8% over the same time. Lucky number 13...here Florida comes – provided that boneheaded decisions like yearlong data center moratoriums like what Palm Beach County recently did don’t end up becoming the norm. There’s no doubt that the future of economic growth rests within tech and the expansion into space. Something Florida’s also extremely well positioned to benefit from provided that we don’t have local governments making decisions that get in the way of that growth story. We’re number 14 and that’s a pretty cool thing.
Takeaway: #2 Pausing for Peace?
Heading into the weekend there were generally two trains of thought expressed through national news media (and commonly reported leaks from the administration's thinking) as it pertained to Iran. 1) That the daily bombing of Iran would continue as had been the case over the prior 11 days or that 2) There would be a major escalation of the conflict related to Iran’s terror proxy – the Houthis attacking Saudi oil vessels in the Red Sea, in addition to the IRGC’s regular striking of ships in and around the Strait of Hormuz. In the end we saw neither of those potential outcomes playout as there was what appeared to be a pause for potential peace once again. Late on Friday the Pakistani contingent, led by The Fantastic Man, who's been a central negotiator in talks right along in the lead up to the ceasefire and MOU, said that they were working on new ways to restart peace talks between the Well-Imaming Iranian regime and the United States. Apparently, President Trump is willing to give it at least one more chance as the strikes overseas paused for the weekend...and by Sunday there was the news that Bibi’s visit to the White House this week could mark a potential key turning point for talks with Iran. While all of that remains to be seen it was a rough weekend for tankers in the middle east as the Houthis attacks and attempted attacks in the Red Sea continued (notably Saudi Arabia retaliated militarily against the Houthis for the first time), and on Sunday a major oil tanker exploded while crossing the Strait of Hormuz do to striking a mine. One of the questions will be whether it’s a mine that was missed during the demining efforts recently or if Iran’s remined parts of the Strait covertly. President Trump commented on Truth that he’s considering using frozen Iranian bank accounts to pay for the cost of ships struck by the country and its terror proxies. That might be one way to get their attention. They may be 12-Immaming Islamic terrors, but they do still need money to pay for things and there’s ever less of it floating around Iran these days due to the blockade and relentless bombing of Iran. It’s Great Depression like economic conditions in Iran currently. The bottom line remains that the Iranian situation...
Takeaway: #3 Remains a bit of a mess
It’s unclear what will happen next from here. Though we know this...even if a peace deal with Iran is on track it’s essentially a peace deal with the devil. By now it’s likely that President Trump realizes that Iranian leadership is unlikely to ever be transactional as opposed to being ideological. Hopefully that means that whatever comes next has been fully considered through that context. As I’ve long said during this conflict...price is truth. And the truth is that oil, WTI crude, ended last week at $90 per barrel – up $20+ dollars over the prior two weeks. That’s obviously not a good thing and President Trump also needs to consider the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting this week. The last thing he wants on Wednesday is the Fed raising interest rates to attempt to rein in rising inflation due to energy price strikes resulting from Iran. It may actually be the Fed as much as anything that had President Trump hitting the pause button most recently. He needs oil prices to fall in advance of tomorrow’s FOMC meeting and Wednesday’s policy decision. Peace or at least hints of it is a way to at least temporarily get there. Stay tuned for news...there will be a lot of it this week.