What’s Up w/Stocks, Cryptos, Gold & Silver? Brian Mudd’s Market Update April 6th, 2026
Iran & the partial government shutdown & inflation remain in focus entering this week...
Bottom Line: My first rule of money... Never let your money and emotions cross paths. This story is a weekly wake-up call to show you the near-worst-case scenario for stocks and crypto. Why? So, you can plan your financial future with a cool head, not a racing pulse. The odds of a near-worst case outcome almost certainly won’t happen, however if your plan accounts for it – it can help you manage even the most trying markets like what we’ve experienced this year.
The US stock market is history’s ultimate wealth-building beast. Crypto? It’s minted millionaires from early believers. Fact: Over 90% of the time, investors who try to “time” the market end up poorer than if they just stuck to their original investments. This is about dodging that trap.
Here’s how the big three indexes have fared in 2026:
- DOW: -4% (+2% last week)
- S&P 500: -4% (+2% last week)
- Nasdaq: -6% (+3% last week)
As we’ve entered the sixth week of the Iran war, perhaps as many questions remain about what comes next, as was the case five weeks ago. In the abbreviated trading week last week, optimism reigned supreme that an end to the Iranian war may be in focus with President Trump’s primetime address. Those hopes were quickly dashed when the president indicated a timeline of “2 to 3 more weeks”. With that said, the early week rally was sufficient to end the five-week losing streak for stocks.
Meanwhile, crypto currencies were a mixed bag last week as the massive multi-year bear market remains firmly in place. Many institutional investors have reduced or eliminated positions as the thesis that Bitcoin is “digital gold” and Ether is “digital silver”, during times of uncertainty has failed.
- Bitcoin: -24% 2026 (-2% last week)
- Ether: -32% in 2026 (-3% last week)
- BitwiseETF (Top 10 cryptos): -28% in 2026 (+1% last week)
Once again, one asset class which performed best over the past week, is the best performing asset class over the prior couple of years - precious metals with gold and silver both trading higher. Last week’s rally brought silver back into positive territory for the year.
- Gold: +9% 2026 (+4% last week)
- Silver: +4% in 2026 (+5% last week)
As for the big picture stuff entering this week...
Oil prices (WTI) closed last week at $112 per barrel - the highest daily close yet during the war and a fresh 3.5 year high. One particular oddity that speaks to the disruption in the energy markets most recently is what happened last Thursday – the last day of market trading for the week. WTI crude (what we use in the U.S.) which had been trading at about a $12 discount to Brent crude (which is mostly used in Europe and Asia), had a super rare inversion – with WTI rising $3 above Brent – the first time this has happened since 2009...a moment in time that doesn’t exactly conjure happy economic memories.
It’s especially odd given that WTI crude isn’t impacted by the closing of the Strait of Hormuz during the Iran war – so what’s going on? The U.S. is energy independent – meaning we produce enough of our own energy to meet our country’s demands...however not by much when it comes to oil. As a normal course of trading operations and geography, the U.S. had been receiving about 2.7% of our energy through the Strait of Hormuz. With the protracted timeline of the war – some fear that President Trump may impose an export ban – leading to increased demand from trading partners with current future contracts to guarantee near term oil supplies. This week will be a critical week for oil.
Obviously, that’s not going to portend good things at the pump this week, and with an already stretched consumer – additional economic concerns have arisen. Wall Street economists pegged the risk of a recession over the next 12-months at 22% during the first week of the Iran war. Last week those odds had essentially doubled to 40% as of last week. One more energy note. While the focus has been on oil during the war, there is one critical commodity that comes through the Strait of Hormuz which U.S. companies are reliant on – Helium. Helium is essential to the manufacturing of semiconductors – which are being produced faster than ever before during this AI-age. Helium supply concerns have begun to a significant concern for many tech companies.
One brighter economic story was last week’s employment picture. After a brutal February with unexpected net job losses in the government employment report – job gains of 178,000 were reported – with total revisions from prior months only totaling 7,000 – meaning – the lowest in quite some time. This indicates that February’s issues were related to the California healthcare worker strike as the Trump-administration had indicated (course correcting with the end of the strike).
Also encouraging, were continued wage gains above the rate of inflation. Average hourly earnings hit a new record high of $37.38 per hour – 3.5% higher than a year ago – exactly 1% higher than the inflation rate most recently.
Now for valuation calculations – starting with cryptos...Here’s a look at where they stand. I can’t value cryptos because they have no inherent value. Stocks, though? They’ve got bones. Let’s break down the S&P 500:
- Current P/E: 28.21
- Historic Avg. P/E: 16.21
Translation: On earnings alone, the maximum downside risk is a 43% drop from here, 2% more risk compared with a week ago as stock prices rose while fundamentals didn’t improve. The market is 5% off its risk adjusted highs, though it remains historically expensive as it’s priced near the highest multiple of the current bull market cycle.
So, What’s Your Move?
If a 43% dip wouldn’t derail your life, you’re probably golden. If it would? Time to call a pro and build a plan that doesn’t leave you sweating bullets—or making mistakes.