Today’s entry: I heard you say races Dems won by 18 points previously may flip this year. How many races in Florida might flip if that turns out to be true?
Bottom Line: When looking at 2022 implications, they’re all squarely in the House. Republican Marco Rubio holding the Senate seat up for election this year, he’s obviously well-positioned to win re-election. There are currently 11 Democrats serving in Congress if we include the just elected Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick in the mix. I’ll break these out into three categories, those who won in 2020 by margins of over 18%, those who won by 9%–18%, and those who won by fewer than 9%.
The over 18% group which most likely remain safe this cycle include Al Lawson.*Winner of District 10 Democrat primary (currently held by Val Demmings), Kathy Castor, Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, Lois Frankel, and Frederica Wilson.
Those who won with a margin between 9% to 18% *Winner of District 7 Democrat primary (currently held by Stephanie Murphy), Darren Soto, Ted Deutch, and Debbie Wasserman-Schultz. Lastly, the only one who won with a margin under 9% was *Winner of District 13 Democrat primary (currently held by Charlie Crist).
Breaking these races out highlights a few meaningful points. First, three of Florida’s eleven Congressional Democrats are vacating their posts this cycle. Two of the three are in vulnerable districts. That will only serve to make those seats more challenging for Democrats to hold. Second, only six Florida Democrats can be considered safe this cycle given the hostile conditions for Congressional Democrats. Third, the wildcard of redistricting will make a big difference this year. If the elections were held today Florida would likely send at least two, and possibly as many as six, additional Republicans to Congress next year.
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