When Will The Omicron Surge End in Florida?


Coronavirus Variant Omicron B.1.1.529

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Florida remains at the peak of the pandemic if the sheer volume of cases is what you measure it by. We’re nowhere close to the peak if you look at it through the prism of hospitalizations and especially deaths. Florida’s average for daily cases over the past week is triple what it was at the peak of the delta surge, yet hospitalizations are near half of what they were.

As annoying as the current surge in cases is, much of what’s happening is encouraging regarding the lessor impact of this strain of the virus. As for when this surge will end? According to the University of South Florida’s Dr. Thomas Unnasch, that’ll happen this week. As for the peak day, last week according to the Mayo Clinic, this past Monday was the likely peak day for the surge in cases. Is that still the expectation? Is the peak of the surge behind us?

Using the Mayo Clinic’s highly accurate 14-day COVID-19 projection tool, in conjunction with Florida’s current weekly average for daily cases, we have a good idea. Florida’s currently averaging about 64,500 new daily cases of COVID-19. Using the Mayo Clinic’s projection tool and calculating their guidance against Florida’s current case levels, it’s anticipated that over the next couple of weeks, under the worst-case scenario from the Mayo Clinic, Florida’s cases would increase by 33% from where we are today.

Furthermore, the average projection has Florida seeing a 2% decrease in cases which would leave us pacing around 63,000 daily. Should the best-case scenario play out, we’d see a decline of 28% over the next two weeks. As for whether we’ve seen the peak in Florida? The good news is that the Mayo Clinic’s projection still has this week as the peak week. The not-so-good news is that as opposed to Monday, the average projection now has Saturday as the peak day. Hopefully, this does turn out to be the peak week.


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