Which Florida Amendments Are Most Likely To Pass?

As part of the Florida Amendment Series, I’ve addressed each of the six proposed constitutional amendments. What I’ve yet to dive into is how they’ve polled with Floridians and which ones are positioned to pass. As a reminder, each amendment must achieve 60% of the vote to pass, however, simply making it onto the ballot has proven to be a winning proposition far more often than not. In 2016, three out the four Floridians voted on passed and that grew to eleven out of twelve in 2018. We know polls are anything but perfect, but they can provide insight into how each of these proposals appears to be pacing heading towards Election Day. For the purpose of this breakdown, I’m using the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research polling which was recently released. 

Here's the polling percentage:

No. 1 Citizenship Requirement to Vote in Florida Elections - 78%

No. 2 Raising Florida’s Minimum Wage - 60%

No. 3 All Voters Vote in Primary Elections for State Legislature, Governor, and Cabinet - 58%

No. 4 Voter Approval of Constitutional Amendments - 41%

No. 5 Limitations on Homestead Property Tax Assessments; increased portability period to transfer accrued benefit - 68%

No. 6 Ad Valorem Tax Discount for Spouses of Certain Deceased Veterans Who Had Permanent, Combat-Related Disabilities - 88%

We can draw some pretty meaningful deductions from this polling. It’s pretty clear Amendments 1, 5, and 6 are positioned to pass. Even if the polling is off by several points, they could still pass. Conversely, it’s clear Amendment 4 is set to fall short. And then there are the two tossups. Amendments 2 and 3, which arguably are the most effectual proposals on the ballet, in terms of the impact on Floridians. Interestingly, all of the Amendments positioned to pass mirror my recommendations, as does the one positioned to fail currently. It’s also my hope that the two tossups fall short.

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