The odds of President Donald Trump getting re-elected in 2020 are pretty high. 65% of Presidents who run for re-election win. That becomes the baseline for President Trump entering this cycle. The 65% is based on nearly two-thirds of all incumbent Presidents who’ve run for re-election winning. There are other numbers that come into play, based on a president’s approval ratings as we close in on Election Day.
Now that we’re within 18 months, I can begin tracking President Trump’s reelection odds-based upon history and approval ratings. As of today, 59% based on average polling that 2% less from a week ago and 66% based on likely voters, also 2% less from a week ago. Any way you look at it, President Trump remains the favorite to win the 2020 Presidential Election as of now. There are a couple of takeaways we can glean from the difference between the average of all polling compared to likely voters. President Trump’s average polling is currently slightly below average at this point in his presidency, however, his performance among likely voters is slightly above average. Performing best with those most likely to vote clearly matters most. As of now, he’s outperforming Presidents Clinton and Obama among likely voters at this stage in the cycle.
Given that the odds are best for President Trump with likely voters, a Democrat who can most successfully appeal to non-likely voters would be the best opportunity for Democrats to pull an upset next year based on current political trends.
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