Today’s Entry: Great show! I’m listening to the podcast now. Can you please summarize in a tweet thread about Gen Z turnout compared to Millennials, etc?
Bottom Line: As we continue to unpack all of the storylines within last Tuesday’s midterms, as vote counting continues in many key races a week later, this is an instructive question. Up to now I’ve shared with you the reality that Republicans easily won the congressional “popular vote” garnering 4.3% more votes than Democrats in these midterms. A figure which is bigger than the outcomes feel to Republicans outside of Florida this cycle. I’ve also shared with you the remarkable generational divide. Here’s a recap on how voters voted based on age:
- 18-29: D+28
- 30-44: D+2
- 45-64: R+11
- 65+: R+13
That created the fascinating reality that voters over 30, voted for Republicans in larger margins than ever before, while voters under 30 voted for Democrats in much wider margins than ever before creating a neutralizing factor in many key races across the country. In talking about turnout, the first realization is that it was higher than the average midterm cycle, but down somewhat significantly from the 2018 midterms. The 2018 midterm elections saw 49.4% of the eligible voting population turn out. While votes are still being counted in many races across the country, current projections show turnout pacing 46.3% this time around. There’s no doubt that the lower turnout may have impacted close races across the country. Only eleven states had higher turnout than four years ago and there’s not a specific theme between them. The states which featured higher turnout were:
- Arkansas, Arizona, Hawaii, Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, Oregon, South Dakota, Pennsylvania, Washington, Utah
It’s a mix of red and blue states. Some of which featured high profile races, others which didn’t when compared to other states with lower turnout. In Florida, our unofficial turnout was approximately 4.4% lower than in 2018. As for the generational turnout percentage. Here’s how it appears to have shaken out according to Tuft’s Circle project studying voter turnout:
- 18-29: 27%
- 30+: 59%
In 2018 turnout was 31% for those under 30 and 61.5% for those over 30. So, turnout actually dropped by the largest percentage with younger voters, though even at just 27% turnout, it was above average for that age group for a midterm election. The turnout story is a very big storyline within this cycle. It appears evident based on voting patterns last week, that if voters under thirty had turned out in numbers as large as four years ago, Democrats would likely be positioned to have retained control of the House in addition to the Senate. Likewise, given the ideological break of voters over thirty, had they turned out in a similar way as they did four years ago, it’s likely Republicans would have easily won control of the House, as opposed to still sweating it out. It’s also likely a senate race or two may have had a different outcome, though that remains less clear.
The lower turnout of voters of all ages generally, compared to four years ago is an interesting dynamic intellectually. Four years ago, the economy was humming along, inflation was low as were even issues like racial tensions. But Donald Trump was president. Here we are with still 40-year high inflation, a technical recession having already occurred this year, serious crime concerns and issues exacerbated by a border crisis, along with significant geopolitical concerns – including a war in Europe. All of that evidently doesn’t motivate some voters as much as Trump being president (and that’s true of his supporters and opponents alike). And that will certainly be in focus after tonight’s big Trump announcement which I’m guessing isn’t to plug a cool new Truth Social feature. The Trump factor seemingly has trumped all other issues for many.
Each day I feature a listener question sent by one of these methods.
Email: brianmudd@iheartmedia.com
Gettr, Parler & Twitter: @brianmuddradio
iHeartRadio: Use the Talkback feature – the microphone button on our station’s page in the iHeart app.
Photo: Getty Images