Today’s Entry: @brianmuddradio Are you making election predictions this cycle?
Bottom Line: Because you asked nicely...sure you’ve got it! Election predictions are fun and like anyone else who is highly engaged in covering politics, I have my ideas about what will play out today. I also have a methodology for how I go about estimating what may happen today. I have a saying that I’ve not made a career out of being wrong. Making predictions is a bit of an inherent contradiction because if you do it enough you will be wrong, and I have. Historically my predictions have a strong track record. Starting with the razor-thin 2000 cycle, my guesstimates have been accurate in every cycle except, the most recent... In 2020, I had Joe Biden once again winning the popular vote but with President Trump winning reelection by a slimmer margin than in 2016. Obviously, that didn’t happen (though I did accurately predict Republicans outperforming in Congressional races). So, here’s to hoping I start a new accuracy streak starting today. But most of all, this is about having fun, and predictions are just that...obviously only votes matter. So, let’s get to it.
I’ll start by being transparent with my methodology. It’s no secret that the party which is out of power almost always performs best in midterm elections. That will no doubt be the case today with Republicans best positioned as is evidenced by having an average advantage on the generic ballot. As I’ve noted in my Midweek Midterm Election updates... Since the advent of the polling age in the 1930’s whatever party has been favored on the generic ballot on every midterm Election Day has fared best without fail (that’s a 22-0 record). What that also has historically meant is that late breaking voters will generally consolidate toward Republican candidates. Using the RealClear Politics polling trends over the past week, late breakers appear to be breaking at a rate of approximately 58% to Republicans, 41% to Democrats and just over 1% to third party candidates. That’s a Republican advantage which is about 2% greater than usual for the opposition party. In issuing projections I’m applying that breakout with the remaining undecided voters to produce the projected results. When I do here’s what I get...
Starting with closely watched senate races:
- Arizona: Masters 49.6% - Kelly 49.4% - GOP pick up
- Colorado: O’Dea 47.3% - Bennet 51.6% - DEM hold
- Georgia: Walker 50.1% - Warnock 48.9% - GOP pickup
- New Hampshire: Hassan 49.7% - Bolduc – 49.3% - DEM hold
- Nevada: Laxalt 51.2% - Cortez Masto – 47.7% - GOP pickup
- North Carolina: 52.5% Budd - Beasley – 46.5% - GOP hold
- Ohio: Vance 53.6% - Ryan – 45.3% - GOP hold
- Pennsylvania: Oz 50% - Fetterman 49% - GOP hold
- Washington: Murray 50.7% - Smiley 48.3% - DEM hold
- Wisconsin: Johnson 51.2% - Barnes 47.8% - GOP hold
This is the closest slate of senate races I’ve ever covered in a single cycle with three that are projecting 1% or slimer margins and another two potentially to be decided by fewer than two points. That means a little movement either way can lead to dramatically different results. Right now, the best-case scenario for Democrats appears to be holding 50 seats keeping the status quo majority in place. Meanwhile, the best case for Republicans appears to be 54 seats. The most likely outcome, which is what’s reflected in this breakout, is that Republicans will gain three seats to hold a 53-47 majority exiting the cycle.
As for the House (good, current polling is hard to come by in many specific races)…
- GOP +29 seats – ending with 241 seats
And now closely watched governor’s races:
- Arizona: GOP hold
- Kansas: GOP pickup
- Maine: DEM hold
- Maryland: DEM pickup
- Massachusetts: DEM pickup
- Michigan: DEM hold
- Minnesota: DEM hold
- Nevada: GOP pickup
- New Mexico: DEM hold
- New York: DEM hold
- Oklahoma: GOP hold
- Oregon: DEM hold
- Wisconsin: GOP pickup
That would leave Republicans with a net gain of two Governor’s races ending the cycle with 30 Republican governors. The oddest part of this exercise... Not having any Florida races which are part of the story. Related... I’m showing DeSantis winning by 12.5% and Rubio by 9.3%. So, there you have it, all of my midterm election predictions. It’ll be fun to see how they hold up.
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Email: brianmudd@iheartmedia.com
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