Today’s Entry: @brianmuddradio lots of talk of Miami-Dade flipping to DeSantis this cycle. You’ve updated voter registration changes for the state. What have they been over the past four years in Dade?
Bottom Line: One of the most remarkable stories in Florida’s political transformation, which has led to Republicans holding their first registration advantage in any election cycle in the state’s history, is how pervasive it’s been. Pervasive by way of sheer numbers of registered voters. Pervasive in that even a majority of Democrat majority counties In Florida have experienced a net increase in Republican registration. That’s included South Florida’s long-established Democrat strongholds of Miami-Dade and Palm Beach Counties.
The most recent statewide voter registration information from the Florida Division of Elections reflects all registered voters in our state as of the start of October. Republicans held a 292,533-registration voter advantage over Democrats in Florida. But what’s most remarkable when discussing Florida’s changes in voter registration over the past four years, is this... There are nearly 20,000 fewer registered Democrats in the state of Florida today compared to four years ago. There are over 540,000 more Republican voters than four years ago which has culminated in the current, aforementioned, voter registration advantage. Your question specifically is about Miami-Dade, as many are now predicting Florida’s largest county will break this cycle for Governor DeSantis. While that’s looking likely, it won’t be by way of voter registration specifically, though Dade has featured a big move towards the right with voter registration. Democrats still maintain a voter registration advantage in Miami-Dade of approximately 139,000 voters. If it flips, it will be largely due to NPA’s which had previously broken for Democrats, breaking the other way instead. That said, the shift towards the right has been significant.
Here’s a look at the shift in voter registration within Florida’s Democrat majority counties by way of voter registration over the past four years:
- Alachua: D +301
- Broward: D +5,407
- Duval: D +4,295
- Gadsden: R +1,694
- Hamilton: R +1,612 (county flipped to GOP majority)
- Hillsborough: R +13,839
- Jefferson: R+ 1,704
- Leon: R+ 3,356
- Miami-Dade: R +85,157
- Orange: D+ 10,085
- Palm Beach: R+ 20,856
- St. Lucie: R+ 7,970
So, the scorecard looks like this. Eight of the twelve Democrat majority counties have moved right by way of voter registration, one of which has since flipped to a Republican majority. The biggest shift far and away came in Miami-Dade, while Palm Beach and Hillsborough experienced sizeable shifts to the right as well. Of the net shift towards Republicans, of 540,000 voters over the past four years, 22% of that shift happened in Democrat majority counties. But back to where this conversation started with Miami-Dade specifically. While twelve of Florida’s 67 counties were Democrat majority counties by way of voter registration, only seven were Democrat majority counties by way of the 2020 election cycle. Florida’s registered NPA’s are now over 29% of all registered voters and have factored heavily in Florida’s elections over the past two decades. The reason why five Democrat majority counties have broken for Republicans previously, is the same reason why Republicans have controlled the state government for the last 24 years, despite Democrats having held a registration advantage in until this cycle. Florida’s NPA’s have historically been a bit more likely than not to break for Republicans and should Miami-Dade break for DeSantis next week, the huge shift towards Republicans by way of voter registration would be a significant part of the story, but the biggest would be the break of the NPA’s.
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