Q&A of the Day – Which Political Party Benefits Most from Voter Fraud?
Bottom Line: Perception is said to be reality. Often that’s the case. In my experience matters of voter fraud tend to defy those expectations. Democrats will commonly say there’s not meaningful voter fraud and if there is, it’s Republicans who’re responsible. Republicans often say there’s considerable voter fraud while asserting it’s to the advantage of Democrats. I’ll start with the disclaimer that we don’t know what we don’t know – and to that end there are still 136 officially referred but unpursued voter fraud cases in Florida alone (after the state’s recent announcement of 20 arrests by the newly installed Election Crimes Division). That said there’s a significant sample of successfully prosecuted voter fraud cases which does paint a partisan picture of voter fraud. But first, let’s start with the high-level facts.
- Since 1980 there have been 1,375 proven cases of voter fraud
- There have been 1,182 criminal convictions for voter fraud related to those cases
- There has been proven voter fraud in all 50 states
- There has been evidenced voter fraud in every election cycle
- There have been 32 criminal convictions thus far in 2022 stemming from voter fraud in prior election cycles after 21 criminal convictions last year
There are a few highly instructive points associated with those baseline facts. First, it’s demonstrably false to assert that voter fraud doesn’t occur or that it’s not a meaningful concern. Anyone, and I do mean anyone, who operates on those talking points is lying and retains no credibility in discussing the topic. It happens in every cycle and has occurred in every state. That leads to the next point, remaining vigilant is always important because there are always some who attempt to steal elections. And on that note, it often takes years to obtain justice for those who are eventually prosecuted. It’s notable that through the first eight months of this year there were more criminal convictions for voter fraud stemming from the 2020 election than in the whole prior year. And based on Florida’s recent actions to pursue previously unpursued voter fraud cases, that will probably be true yet again next year. It's for all of these reasons that it’s critical to attempt to thwart voter fraud on the front end, a la Florida’s election integrity laws, and to send a strong message on the backend, via rigorous prosecutions for offenders. Now, with that said, let’s dive into the politics of it all. For ease of presentation here’s what we know about the partisan bend of those engaged in voter fraud based on this year’s voter fraud convictions.
- Democrat: 14
- Republican: 10
- Non-partisan/Not determined: 8
What I can tell you based on having studied the topic regularly over the course of my career is that this breakout is typical. No party has a monopoly on voter fraud, through there are slightly more Democrats found to be guilty of engaging in it. This is the latest reminder that all voters should care about integrity in elections and that political talking points often don’t match reality. One other related note. Most commonly when Democrats have been convicted most recently, it’s most commonly been for ballot harvesting activity in states where its illegal. When Republicans have been involved it's most commonly been for voting in multiple locations (generally two different states). So there do appear to be some themes in generalities with the way partisans tend to carry out voter fraud.
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Today’s entry: Submitted via Talkback regarding the partisan split of voter fraud
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