MIAMI -- Tropical Depression Fred remains disorganized and forecasters have pulled back some of their warnings for Florida. The tropical storm warning for the Middle and Upper Keys has been discontinued, and so has the tropical storm watch for Southwest Florida. A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the lower Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge. Warnings are possible for Northwest Florida Saturday as Fred is expected to make landfall near Pensacola as a storm. Heavy rains may still be a possibility for the Florida west coast this weekend.
Meantime, Tropical Depression Seven continues moving quickly in the far Atlantic toward the eastern Caribbean.
Here are the latest updates on both from the National Hurricane Center:
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fred Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021
...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM FRED CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
CUBA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 80.6W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SE OF VARADERO CUBA
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM SSE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Tropical Storm Warning for the Middle and Upper Florida Keys
from the Seven Mile Bridge to Ocean Reef has been discontinued,
including Florida Bay.
The Tropical Storm Watch along the west coast of Florida has been
discontinued.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge to the Dry Tortugas
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 to 36 hours.
Interests in Cuba and in the Florida peninsula and Florida
Panhandle should monitor the progress of Fred. Watches could be
required for portions of the Florida panhandle on Saturday.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred
was located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 80.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A
west-northwestward motion is expected to begin overnight. A turn
toward the northwest is expected on Saturday, and this general
motion should continue through early Monday. On the forecast track,
Fred is expected to continue moving near the north coast of central
Cuba tonight, pass near or west of the lower Florida Keys on
Saturday, and move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico Saturday
night and Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected through early Saturday. After
that, slow strengthening is forecast, and Fred could become a
tropical storm again by late Saturday or Saturday night.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.
RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:
Portions of Cuba...2 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8
inches. This rainfall may lead to scattered flash flooding.
Across the Bahamas...1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of
5 inches.
Tonight through Monday, 3 to 6 inches of rain is anticipated across
the Keys, southern and central Florida north towards the Big Bend,
with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead
to areal, urban, and small stream flooding impacts, and cause new
minor flooding across the western Florida Peninsula and exacerbate
ongoing minor to isolated moderate flooding in northern Florida.
From Sunday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into
inland portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central
Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the
area.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
warning area across the Florida Keys on Saturday.
SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across
portions of the Bahamas and the northern coast of Cuba through
tonight. These swells could reach the Florida Keys and southern
Florida by early Saturday and increase along the west coast of
Florida Saturday night and Sunday. Please consult products from
your local weather office for more details.
TORNADOES: A tornado or two may be possible starting Saturday
afternoon across portions of central and southern Florida.
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Seven Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
1100 PM AST Fri Aug 13 2021
...SMALL TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONTINUES MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 53.8W
ABOUT 540 MI...870 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua and Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Montserrat
* Saba and Sint Eustatius
* Sint Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands, as well as the
Dominican Republic, should monitor the progress of this system.
Additional watches and warnings will likely be required for these
areas tonight or on Saturday.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seven
was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 53.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h). A
motion towards the west or west-northwest with a gradual decrease
in forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the
forecast track, the center of the depression is forecast to move
over the Leeward Islands Saturday night, over the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico on Sunday, and then over the Dominican Republic on
Monday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tomorrow.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Seven can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and
WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area over the Leeward Islands by Saturday night or early Sunday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible over the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico beginning on Sunday.
RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts Saturday into Monday:
Over the northern Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands...3 to 6
inches. This rainfall may produce scattered areas of flash and urban
flooding.
Over Puerto Rico...3 to 6 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to
flash, urban, and small stream flooding as well as potential
mudslides.
Photo: National Hurricane Center