MIAMI -- The latest advisory (8 p.m.) shows Tropical Depression Fred as disorganized, as it continues to plow west into the landmass of Cuba, on its way toward the Gulf.
It's expected to bring three inches or more of rain to parts of the lower Keys tomorrow, as well as tropical storm conditions once it clears Cuba and strengthens over water.
The forecast track shows landfall somewhere between Pensacola and Panama City as a tropical storm Monday afternoon.
Meantime, Tropical Depression Seven is prompting several Tropical Storm Warnings in the Caribbean, including Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
Governor DeSantis has declared a state of emergency in 23 Florida counties ahead of Fred's arrival.
Advisories for both are posted below:
..DISORGANIZED FRED CONTINUES TO SPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CUBA...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 80.2W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM W OF CAIBARIEN CUBA
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys west of Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas
* Florida Bay
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The southwest coast of Florida from Englewood south and east to
Ocean Reef
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
Interests in the Bahamas, Cuba, and in the Florida peninsula and
Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of Fred. Additional
watches and warnings could be required for portions of the west
coast of Florida and the Florida panhandle tonight or Saturday.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred
was located near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 80.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A
west-northwestward motion is expected to begin overnight. A turn
toward the northwest is expected on Saturday, and this general
motion should continue through early Monday. On the forecast track,
Fred is expected to continue moving near the north coast of central
Cuba tonight, pass near or west of the lower Florida Keys on
Saturday, and pass near or west of the west coast of the Florida
peninsula Saturday night and Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected tonight. After that,
slow strengthening is forecast, and Fred could become a tropical
storm again on Saturday.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.
RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:
Portions of Cuba...2 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8
inches. This rainfall may lead to scattered flash flooding.
Across the Bahamas...1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of
5 inches.
Today through Monday, 3 to 6 inches of rain is anticipated across
the Keys, southern and central Florida north towards the Big Bend,
with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead
to areal, urban, and small stream flooding, and potentially worsen
ongoing minor to isolated moderate river flooding over northern
Florida.
From Sunday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into
inland portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central
Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the
area.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
warning area across the Florida Keys on Saturday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area in Florida beginning
Saturday.
SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across
portions of the Bahamas and the northern coast of Cuba through
tonight. These swells could reach the Florida Keys and southern
Florida by early Saturday and increase along the west coast of
Florida Saturday night and Sunday. Please consult products from
your local weather office for more details.
TORNADOES: There will be a risk of isolated tornadoes beginning
Saturday afternoon over parts of central and south Florida.
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Seven Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
800 PM AST Fri Aug 13 2021
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 53.1W
ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for Antigua and Barbuda, St. Kitts and Nevis, and
Montserrat.
The government of the Netherlands has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for Saba and Sint Eustatius.
The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for St.
Martin and St. Barthelemy.
The government of Sint Maarten has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
for Sint Maarten.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua and Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Montserrat
* Saba and Sint Eustatius
* Sint Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands, as well as the
Dominican Republic, should monitor the progress of this system.
Additional watches and warnings will likely be required for these
areas tonight or on Saturday.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seven
was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 53.1 West. The
depression is moving quickly toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h).
A motion toward the west or west-northwest with a gradual decrease
in forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the
forecast track, the center of the depression is forecast to move
over the Leeward Islands Saturday night, over the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico on Sunday, and then over the Dominican Republic on
Monday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of
days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm
tonight or on Saturday.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Seven can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and
WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area over the Leeward Islands by Saturday night or early Sunday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible over the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico beginning on Sunday.
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce the following
rainfall amounts Saturday into Monday:
Over the northern Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands...3 to 6
inches. This rainfall may produce scattered areas of flash and urban
flooding.
Over Puerto Rico...3 to 6 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to
flash, urban, and small stream flooding as well as potential
mudslides.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
Photo: NHC