If you're familiar with the Atlantic hurricane season, you're aware that we've just begun to enter the peak time of the season. The good news is twofold though as we wade into what’s historically the 2nd busiest month of hurricane season.
First, in last year’s record-setting season, we already had nine named storms entering August. While we were off to a fast start this year, we enter August with five named storms, which is also below the 2nd busiest season on record, 2005’s where we had seven named storms by now. Second, the Hurricane Center’s map is currently clear for the next five days. I’ll explain what our current pacing resembles in a minute but first, let’s look at how much of the traditional hurricane season is statistically behind us based on historical data.
Since tracking began in 1851, 14% of all tropical storms happen prior to August and 10% of all hurricanes have formed prior to August.
So, while a third of hurricane season is behind us based on dates on a calendar, about 90% of what’s historically happened is ahead of us. The start to this season most closely resembles the 2019 hurricane season where we were also five named storms in at the start of August. We finished 2019 with 18 named storms and six hurricanes, which if something similar does occur this year, would place this season right in line with the estimates by NOAA and others heading into the year.
As we advance through the month, hopefully, free from the threat of hurricanes, we'll enter peak hurricane season. The peak has historically been the final two weeks of August and the first two weeks of September - with September 10th being the absolute peak of the season. For perspective, there have been more tropical storms and hurricanes in August, than the first seven months of the year combined.
We average 2.4 tropical storms and 1.6 hurricanes. An average of one storm or hurricane makes landfall in the US every other year. So, here we go – right into the heart of the season. Fingers crossed.