We entered this July exactly where we were last year, having had four named storms through June. That quickly changed with the turn of the calendar as tropical storm Elsa formed in the Atlantic as of the 5am advisory from the National Hurricane Center. Hopefully, that’s not a sign we’ll tie last year’s record number of named storms. In any event, as we watch Elsa, our fifth named storm of the season here's a breakdown of July’s hurricane history.
There are six months to hurricane season but as you're aware, there's nothing even about the activity within them. June historically is the month with the fewest named storms. Activity usually picks up in July.
Record keeping for the Atlantic hurricane season began officially in 1851. By looking at how many storms have formed in each month, prior to July, 7.5% of all tropical storms and 4% of all hurricanes have occurred.
Based on typical activity we have well over 90% of what will develop during hurricane season in front of us. July is the 4th most active month for tropical storm development and 5th most active for hurricane formation.
So, what typically happens in July? We average .7 tropical storms and .3 hurricanes. For the entire month of July, we only average one named tropical system. We should wish to be so lucky this year.