My real question coming out of last Friday’s jobs report is if it was really as weak as it seemed. While the ADP report showed private-sector job growth coming in weaker than had been expected, it was still well ahead of the government’s numbers. Given the massive government revisions we’ve been known to see, this report has the making of one which will include positive revisions in future months.
But now there’s more than meets the eye with these numbers. First, the headline numbers from the jobs report. The unemployment rate went up to 6.1%, adding more than 266,000 jobs. The negative revisions from previous months totaled 78,000 jobs.
Not only was the gain weaker than expected, but net of revisions, fewer than 200k jobs were also added. No wonder the unemployment rate went higher. But the reported base rate and the real unemployment rate are two separate things. The real unemployment rate once underemployed, long-term unemployed, and marginally attached people are accounted for is actually 10.4%, that .3%down.
There are currently 11.3 million people who are long-term unemployed, underemployed or marginally attached to the workforce who make up the difference between the base rate and the real rate. The real unemployment rate dropped while the base rate went higher. This is where the real news from this report showed up. About 600,000 people in one of those three categories improved their employment situation during the month. That’s the real jobs story of April.
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