Census Changes; What They Mean In The Electoral College & Congress

Monday’s Census announcement, delayed by four months due to the pandemic, set the stage for what will be for the next ten years. There are now over 331 million Americans. Where we’re located continues to shift from the northeast and Midwest to the southeast and west.

Texas was the biggest gainer adding two Electoral College votes and two congressional seats. In Florida, we were second adding one and one. Other states gaining one seat in the House of Representatives included Colorado, Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon. These states also gained one vote in the Electoral College based upon Census changes. Texas and Florida are set to gain as much representation as the five other states combined. That’s also a preview of what’s to come in the Electoral College.

States that are set to lose one person in the House of Representatives include California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. They are also all set to lose one vote in the Electoral College based upon Census changes.

Net-net, what would the difference in the Electoral College have been in the 2020 election cycle? Donald Trump would have fared better by three Electoral College votes, or the equivalent of a small state. The changes in the Electoral College and Congress would appear to be generally favorable for Republicans. This will be key for Republicans as they seek to gain control of Congress in next year’s midterm election cycle. 


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