How Close Is Florida To Herd Immunity?


Herd immunity. From the onset of the pandemic, we’ve wanted to get there, but the details about that have brought about endless debates. With the advent of the vaccines, the conversation shifted from debates about how to get there to when we would get there. Truth is, like any other moving target, we probably won’t know until well after it’s happened but we can start putting together the pieces in Florida based on who’s had the virus, who’s been vaccination and our current population.

Florida’s current population is 21.7 million. The total Florida population who've recovered from COVID-19 or are currently recovering is 1.88 million. And, total population vaccinated with at least one dose of a COVID vaccine is 3 million. That means at least 22.5% of Floridians have either had COVID-19 or have been vaccinated against it.

It’s still a long way from where we theoretically will catch the herd, though theories exist that multiples more people have had the virus than were ever reported. As recently as January 28th, I studied the CDC’s excess death information. It paints the picture regarding how many more people have likely had the virus than were diagnosed with it. By the end of January, there were 19% more people who’d died than usual since the onset of the pandemic who weren’t diagnosed with COVID-19. If 19% more Floridians have had the virus than we’re aware that’d add another 4.1 million people to the mix taking us above 41% of the population who would have antibodies at this point.

Based on this info, there's a good chance that entering March Florida has made it at least halfway to the herd.

Photo by: Getty Images


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