Remarkably we’re now only about two weeks away from Election Day with early voting set to get underway today and Florida’s political landscape, as measured through voter registration, has never been closer. Late last week the Florida Division of Elections provided the final report for all voter registrations for those who will be eligible to vote in November 3rd's elections.
Some of the takeaways include Republicans gaining ground on Democrats for a sixth consecutive month and narrowing the partisan registration gap to the lowest record in state history. Also, voters have been more likely to register in a political party compared to past years, NPA’s had been the fastest-growing voting block prior to 2020.
There was a 2020 surge in Republican voter registrations in Florida. After Democrats outpaced Republicans in overall registrations early in the year, driven by the Democrat’s Presidential Primary in March, Republicans have once again outpaced Democrats in voter registrations, continuing the long-term Florida trends.
Here’s the change in voter registration by party in Florida compared to four years ago:
- DEM: +397,549
- GOP: +593,735
- NPA/Other: +491,400
Republicans have added 196,186 more voters than Democrats over the past four years and improved that gap by nearly 50,000 voters in September and October’s registration deadline. The current breakout of registered voters has Democrats with 36.7%, Republicans with 35.8%, and NPA/Other with 27.5%.
At less than one percent, the advantage for Democrats has never been smaller in Florida since record-keeping of partisan registrations began in 1972. While Florida remains a purple state, in which Democrats still hold a slight advantage, movement towards the right not only continued in 2020, based on voter registrations, but it accelerated considerably. This information also becomes the benchmark for what good polling samples should reflect in Florida. President Trump won Florida by 1.2% four years ago. When Democrats had a 2.5% advantage in voter registration. With a voter registration swing of 1.6% in favor of Republicans, this reason for team Trump and Republicans down-ballot to feel optimistic about Florida.
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