Florida Elections Series For September 25th

Even the biggest national news is finding its way to South Florida this week with Hialeah's Barbara Lagoa being on President Trump’s finalist list for the Supreme Court. The President himself is coming to South Florida today as the campaign makes its final stops prior to the first debate next Tuesday. With Election Day now under six weeks away polling and voter registrations have picked up considerably.

This week, Republicans narrowed the Democrats' lead in voter registration from 2.5% in 2016 to 1.3% today. Furthermore, record numbers of vote-by-mail ballots are now being sent out to voters with Democrats significantly outpacing Republicans with requests for these ballots. A total of 35,500 ballots cast by mail were rejected in the August primaries with Democrats having 5,600 more votes invalidated than Republicans. On Monday, I’ll dive into the latest voter registration information from the state reflecting all voters having registered through August. I'll just start now by saying it was great news for Republicans. It’s clear Florida’s electorate generally is continuing to inch towards the right. 

As for polling across our state, some highlights based on the most recent polling available include Florida’s statistical tie between Trump and Biden after two polls showed Biden with a 3-point advantage and one showing Trump up 4. The first poll in Florida’s 18th shows Mast up 8 over Pam Keith. Lastly, only polls in Florida’s 26th and 27th show Maria Elvira Salazar and Carlos Gimenez in the lead.

The news followed the generally positive trend for Republicans in Florida this week with Biden’s previous polling advantage in Florida essentially erased. Brian Mast appeared to hold a similar level of support to he is reelection level of two years ago and Republicans very much in the hunt to regain the two South Florida seats which flipped to Democrats two years ago. Be especially mindful that trends now matter more because Floridians are now officially voting with vote-by-mail ballots. Next week will surely be festive.

Photo by: Scott Olson/Getty Images

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