Earlier this week I shared with you the history of convention bounces. As part of that story, I shared with you the reality that only twice in the polling age had a convention for either party not resulted in a polling bounce in the week afterward. Both conventions which didn’t lead to a bounce were led by Democrats challenging an incumbent Republican President, who lost their elections. Those two conventions were George McGovern’s in 1972, which led to flat polling afterward and the 2004 DNC when John Kerry was the party’s nominee. He lost a point of support following the DNC. The only candidate with which that has happened in the polling age.
The average polling bounce has exceeded five points in the polls. So, what’s happened with the most recent polling conducted? It looks like a potential case of history repeating itself for the third time.
There are now four pollsters who have produced post-convention head-to-head polls prior to the convention and after. Here are the results, percentage change in post-convention polling vs. pre-polling:
- CBS/YouGov: 0%
- CNBC/Change Research: +2%
- Rasmussen Reports: -3%
- Economist/YouGov: -1%
That culminates in a net loss of 0.5% across an average of four polls. It’s safe to say there was no Biden bounce from the convention. Despite what might be articulated day in and day out by most media outlets, history increasingly looks to be on the side of President Trump as we look towards November.
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