Today’s entry: If there are more registered Democrats than Republicans in Florida but Republicans are more likely to win elections does this mean Florida is more likely than other states to have voters break with their registered political party?
Bottom Line: This is one of those questions where there won’t be exact answers, because we don’t really know how anyone voted, but we can draw inferences that could answer your question. First, it’s not possible to compare Florida to the entire country because only 31 states and D.C. have partisan registration. Among the 19 states which don’t register based on a party are most Midwest and southern states along with Texas, states Republicans generally perform well in. As a result, the overall voter registration by a party is skewed left nationally. Among the 31 states with partisan registration here’s the breakout:
- Democrats: 40%
- Republicans: 29%
- NPA\Other: 28%
Here’s what Florida currently looks like:
- Democrats: 37.2%
- Republicans: 35.4%
- NPA\Other: 26.1%
So, at the onset, Florida’s political landscape is 8.2% more favorable for Republicans than the other 30 states with partisan registration. That complicates comparisons. There are two ways to attempt to determine split ballots regardless of one’s registered political party. Exit polling and studying multiple statewide races. Exit polling is a bit of a crapshoot. How many exit polls on Election Day showing a particular candidate or party supposedly winning only for the opposite to be the case? For that reason, I think looking at the partisan vote difference with statewide elections is the best way to determine how many voters deviate from one party to another. Let’s breakdown the most recent general election in 2018. The two statewide races with the biggest partisan gap in votes were the AG and Agriculture Commissioner race.
Ashley Moody defeated Sean Shaw by exactly 6% for the widest margin of victory. Conversely, the best showing for Democrats was Nikki Fried’s win over Matt Caldwell by one-tenth of one percent. This shows a maximum of six percent of Floridians voting for candidates in both political parties last cycle. This compares to about 10% nationally in 2018. Floridians are slightly less likely to vote split ballots than voters in other states, at least as of two years ago.
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Photo by: Florida Dept. of Agriculture & Consumer Services