Each cycle I give analysis aimed to provide insight that cuts through the noise. History has a way of repeating itself so at the onset of this series we first need to account for the type of cycle this one happens to be. It’s a reelection bid for an incumbent Republican President. In these cycles, the average outcome in Congress shows that there's no net change in the Senate and in the House Republicans add 9 seats.
Republicans currently control the Senate with 53 seats. Should the typical outcome occur for this type of cycle, Republicans would retain control of the Senate. Likewise, even if Republicans were to gain the average of nine seats typically gained during this type of cycle, Democrats who have a majority in the House by 38 seats and would retain control. We enter this election cycle with the status quo, split control of Congress being the most likely outcome this year.
If there’s to be a change in congressional control, Democrats will need to net four total senate seats if President Trump is reelected or three if Joe Biden is elected. A total of 35 senate seats are up for election this year. 23 are held by Republicans, meaning there’s more opportunity for Democrats to potentially flip seats than for Republicans to gain ground. Of course, in the House, all seats are up for election every two years. Broadly, when it comes to Congress, the generic ballot polling is what’s looked to as a temperature check of how people intend to vote in Congressional races.
Historically, in election cycles featuring a reelection bid by a Republican President, Republicans fare about 2.6% better than the generic ballot polling indicates. So, what does it indicate as of now? Using an average of likely voter generic ballot polls, Democrats are currently showing a 5.5% advantage. That’d equate to a 2.9% advantage for Democrats nationally. Were that to hold until Election Day Democrats would be positioned to pick up two seats in the Senate, while Republicans would be on track for gaining at least 9 seats in the House. In 2018 when Democrats won control of the House of Representatives, they won the Congressional popular vote by 8.4%.
In other words, Republicans are currently pacing 5.5% better than in the 2018 midterms. Therefore, they’re positioned to gain seats despite an overall generic ballot deficit. As of this update, Democrats are positioned to gain seats in the Senate and Republicans are likely to gain in the House. Notably, Republicans are currently positioned to retain control of the Senate, with Democrats narrowly holding control of the House.
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