We’re now under twelve weeks away from November 3rd, Election Day. Which means it’s time to start tracking the activity in swing states. It’s time for the anatomy of a swing state.
Each cycle I analyze states that were decided by ten points or less in the previous presidential election cycle. These represent potential swing states that are in play for both parties heading into each cycle. It’s a fluid number from cycle to cycle which reflects changes in the electorate over time. In 2016, there were 16 states decided by fewer than ten points. President Trump won 30 states in 2016 including nine of the sixteen swing states which proved key to his victory. That’s where this series begins this year. President Trump won Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin in 2016.
Those are the states that are key to President Trump’s reelection bid. Notably, President Trump doesn’t have to retain all of those states to win reelection. His margin of victory, with 306 electoral votes, was 36 more than what’s needed to win. Click here, to view the map of the country with the electoral votes represented by each state based on the 2016 election outcomes. Depending on the size of the states, President Trump could lose between one to three of these states and still win the election without picking up any states he didn’t carry in 2016.
Joe Biden will need to retain seven swing states carried by Hillary Clinton in 2016 in addition to adding at least two of the Trump states if he’s to win this year. Those states are Colorado, Maine, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Virginia. While those states remain swing states, the last time a Republican won any of those states was in 2004 when George W. Bush carried Colorado, New Mexico, and Virginia. These sixteen states are where the Presidential Election will be won.
Next week we’ll take a first look at polling in these states compared to the same date in 2016 for an apples to apples look at how they’re pacing.