It’s been a year unlike any other which is leading to an election cycle unlike any other. This has included a record number of Floridian’s requesting ballots to vote by mail for the August primaries in advance of the August 18th Election Day. How significant is the difference? Consider that in the August 2018 primaries a total of 1.35 million votes by mail were received by the state. As of Thursday, 1.31 million had already rolled in, that's nearly as many as the total from the entire 2018 election. It’s clear record votes by mail will be received for our August primaries. Of course, those aren’t the only votes which are rolling in prior to Election Day. Early voting is currently underway in 28 of Florida’s 67 counties including Miami-Dade and Palm Beach. This opens up the biggest question mark of all. How will in-person turnout be during the pandemic? With all votes received by the state through Thursday, here’s turnout based on voter registration:
- Democrat: 48%
- Republican: 37%
- NPA/Other: 15%
Democrats are maintaining a double-digit advantage as Republicans are dramatically underperforming with votes by mail while maintaining a slight edge in early voting thus far. It’s clear the aggressive vote by mail campaign by Democrats is paying off. There are still plenty of unknowns in this cycle. Republicans are holding a slight lead in early voting with under half of the state participating. That’s noteworthy because two of the three counties with the most registered Democrats, Miami-Dade, and Palm Beach, are participating. That could be a good sign for Republicans here on out if there’s follow through with in-person voting, either early, which has traditionally benefited Democrats in Florida, or on Election Day, typically a day with strong Republican turnout. What’s clear at this stage in the cycle, is that Republicans will have to outperform their normal early voting patterns and match their typical Election Day turnout advantage if they’re to be competitive in the August 18th primaries. What’s happening here is also highly instructive among party partisans as they attempt to best plan to activate their voters for November’s elections.
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