Today’s entry: What's going on with these stupid regulations? I can go play basketball, I can go to Publix, but I can't go to the beach? Nothing more than manifested absurdity. It's not based on science. It's not based on reality. It’s based on the desire for power and control.
Bottom Line: From the onset of this pandemic, my goal has been the same as always. Establish the facts and go where they take me. In the early going, the facts were generally in favor of the stay-at-home orders we received in South Florida and eventually across the state. The facts have changed considerably over the past month and President Trump's 3-Phase reopening plan provided a road map for state and local governments to use and measure their performance against. Two of the three guidelines operate in two-week positive trends. What we now know is that Florida’s peak was over a month ago. Florida’s peak day for cases, which also happened to be the peak day for South Florida was April 3rd. So, at this point, we don’t just have two weeks' worth of positive trends in South Florida, we have more than four. Still, Broward, Miami-Dade, and Palm Beach Counties have accounted for most of the state’s cases, so I understand the added concern by officials as they look at the timing of the next steps.
The tri-county has produced 59% of Florida’s cases and we account for 29% of the state’s population. Clearly any reopening measures in South Florida carry more risk than the rest of the state. But, now to your point. We hear that facts, data, and science are being used to make decisions but are they really? On Friday Governor DeSantis said, "A lot of people thought it was the most significant thing that ever happened... like it was Lolapooloza on the beach. Outdoor transmission is less likely than transmission in closed environments. The DHS study said that sunlight rapidly killed the virus in aerosols, and it said that outdoor daytime environments are lower risk for transmission of the virus than indoor environments".
Those are the facts, that’s the understood science and data. Not only isn’t there an enhanced risk of reopening beaches in Florida’s counties which have had their beaches reopened for over two weeks, but they’ve also had the lowest week for diagnosed cases since testing began. In fact, aside from beaches, the reopening efforts in states that began April 24th like Georgia have seen remarkable drops in new cases as well. On April 24th, when Georgia began phase one reopening, they were averaging 677 new cases per day. Georgia is now averaging 302. That’s a 55% decrease in new cases since the most aggressive reopening plan began in the state sharing the largest border with ours. I could cite similar examples from across the country but it’s not necessary. Having extensively analyzed the data from areas that have opened beaches and states with the earliest reopening measures across the country...there is no data suggesting an increase in new cases as a result. So why are we seeing policy to the contrary in South Florida?
Maybe it’s what you’re concerned about, politicians eager to continue to exert their influence over our lives in a controlling way. I suspect it’s something slightly different. Fear. Remember when the earliest recommendations from federal healthcare authorities suggested masks weren’t effective for combating the spread? That really wasn’t true, was it? Studies have shown at least an 80% reduction in a spread when masks are used. It was to ensure in the earliest days of the pandemic that healthcare professionals and first responders would have the best possible supply of masks. Officials were concerned about a run on masks leaving those on the frontlines compromised. What’s this have to do with reopening SFL’s beaches?
No local officials want to be responsible for a spike in cases if something were to go wrong with reopening measures. There are only so many people who can cram into a grocery store, a park, a basketball court, a golf course, etc. With over 86 miles of beaches between Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade, you get the idea. Public officials wouldn’t be in a position to effectively manage a crush of people on the beaches if it were to occur. To the premise of your note, South Florida’s beaches remaining closed isn’t based on science or data. It’s based on fear. Hopefully, that’s something we can move beyond rather quickly, sooner than maskgate.
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