Today’s entry: Can you find out what the goal is of this June 11th date, for reopening Florida? Are they suggesting if we wait until then we’ll have a cure and that it won’t come back? I find it odd that they really don’t market the end goal.
Bottom Line: Last week was a big one for first steps towards the new normal. Several states began phase 1 reopening's, while we had task force meetings regarding the next steps in Florida. The June 11th date you’re asking about has to do with the highly debated University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation’s modeling. As has commonly been the case with their models, there’s already been an adjustment to their estimates and they’re now suggesting June 14 this the target date for Florida’s re-opening. As for what it means? According to the Institute, they believe it’s appropriate to reopen when COVID-19 infections drop to 1 per 1 million people. In Florida, we currently have about 30,000 active cases. That’s a long way the 22 active cases suggested by the IHME model as acceptable in our state. Here’s their rationale for the date estimate:
For each location, the timeline is based on the date by which our model projects that COVID-19 infections will drop below 1 per 1 million people. We picked the level of 1 infection per 1 million people because we believe it provides a conservative estimate of the number of infections each location could feasibly manage using containment strategies (widespread testing, tracing, isolation, and limiting large gatherings) to prevent a resurgence of COVID-19. We selected this level knowing that many locations have low capacity to test and contact trace. If locations build up their public health workforce to implement containment strategies, they could consider shortening their timelines for relaxing social distancing measures.
It’s clear Florida and most states aren’t going to be waiting to begin to reopen based on the IHME model suggestions but rather President Trump’s 3-Phase plan for reopening. The states which have already begun to reopen provide a road map for Florida to monitor as we begin to take the next steps. Fourteen states have already begun to reopen. Of the 14, all are before the recommended date. The closest is Montana which has a May 6th estimate by the Institute. The state with the latest estimated date which has already begun to reopen is the one nearest to us. Georgia. They're estimated reopen date is June 22nd, later than Florida’s and of course, they’re currently among the most aggressive for reopening in the country. This makes Georgia the state to watch above all others for Floridians, and not just because of proximity. If Georgia can manage the reopening without an exacerbation of problems, it'd illustrate all states could reopen far earlier than the model estimates. If, however, it goes the other way, all bets would be off. Let’s hope Georgia can stick the landing on their reopening in the interest of public health, the economy, and for Florida’s sake. Meanwhile, expect to begin to see significant reopening's in our state as early as this week. Based on the President’s three-phase plan and Florida’s trend line, April 30 is a target date for much of the state and perhaps May 8th or so for South Florida.
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