Last week President Trump laid out a three-phase plan, Opening Up America Again, for states to use as guidelines for resuming life in the new normal. Each phase has a series of benchmarks to be met with a series of actionable items once achieved. So, what needs to happen before Florida's ready for phase 1?
SYMPTOMS: Downward trajectory of influenza-like illnesses (ILI) reported within a 14-day period and a downward trajectory of COVID-like syndromic cases reported within a 14-day period.
CASES: A downward trajectory of documented cases within a 14-day period or Downward trajectory of positive tests as a percent of total tests within a 14-day period. Meaning a flat or increasing volume of tests.
HOSPITALS: Treat all patients without crisis care and robust testing program in place for at-risk healthcare workers, including emerging antibody testing.
So, how does Florida currently stack up against those benchmarks? We’re not there on the symptoms benchmarks yet. While Florida’s top day for diagnosed cases in a day has been April 3rd, we’ve seen an increase in diagnosed cases since last Tuesday, including Thursday being the 2nd highest day for cases. That would seem to be the new benchmark. If we can see a consistent decline from last Thursday’s numbers, we’d be where we’d need to be on April 30th. As for the “cases” criteria, we’d be better with the trajectory of positive tests. After peaking at 11% of cases testing positive around April 11th, we’ve seen the rate drop consistently since. Currently, 10.1% of all tests have been positive with the most recent tests coming back positive well below a rate of 10%. Should this hold, we’d be looking at meeting this criterion as soon as this Friday, the 24th. Regarding the “hospitals” guidelines, this one is largely subjective as “robust” testing for at-risk healthcare workers lends to a degree of interpretation. Antibody testing is available and being used in isolated settings in Florida. Not sure when it’ll be commonplace but it’s reasonable to think we could meet this by month-end as well.
It’s almost ironic, or as if on cue, that if improvement in Florida continues on its current path, we’d be compliant and ready for phase 1 reopening on May 1st. There are some if’s involved but if you’ve been looking for positive momentum and a real timeline for getting life back on track, this is it. There’s room for cautious optimism that May could be a much better month and that two weeks from now Florida could be in phase 1 reopening.
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