Today’s entry: We wrecked our economy, wrecked our lives and our retirement accounts because of projections! Now the people making the projections are saying it might not be so bad but we can’t un-wreck our economy, lost jobs, investments, etc. Why does anyone take any “projections” with more than a grain of salt? Our lives and livelihood are too important to throw out for guesswork!
Bottom Line: This is the ultimate catch-22. I’m sure you wouldn’t want the news to become worse, but at the same time, if you’ve suffered hardships, and according to AP polling last week, 40% of us have suffered income loss, I completely understand your frustration. There are so many variables in play that there are no perfect answers.
First, let’s take a look at what’s changed in the projections. The most closely watched model in the United States has been the University of Washington’s IHME model. That’s in large part due it being the most comprehensive providing state by state data. The updated University of Washington model showed improvements across the country from the previous model. Their guidance now shows a national peak on April 16th, with a peak in Florida on April 21st. That’s an average of about twelve days better than the previous guidance. Why? The top reason cited by the scientists, the measures we’re taking to stop the spread. This includes new data from Italy and Spain showing the benefits of social distancing measures. It’s really just common sense when you think about it. This virus predominantly spreads by contagious people interacting with other people. Stop the interactions and you’ll stop the spread of the virus.
Now let's look at other variables. We still don’t know what we don’t know with COVID-19. April marks the traditional end of the flu season. Will the warmer weather and humidity also have a positive impact on COVID-19? We haven’t known with certainty but maybe that’s the case. That could be a positive catalyst. Remember how early on we were told COVID-19 wasn’t a risk to our pets/animals? Now we know that tigers and lions in the Bronx Zoo have it. Remember how early on the virus was predominantly a threat to those 65 and older? Using CDC data, 21% of deaths in the United States have involved someone under 65. And here’s one more potential variable with significant implications that may help explain some of the changes I’d just referenced. Mutation.
The prominent reason there isn’t a “cure” for a virus is mutation. They’re always on the move. In February, I broke down research on viruses illustrating the potential for a significant mutation in viruses occurring in as few as 15 days. As annoying as it is to hunker down for a massive hurricane only to have it miss, we’d still rather not be stuck by the major hurricane, right? This is a different version of a similar thing. And playing games with the virus is playing with fire. 21% of everyone who has been diagnosed with this virus and has seen it to completion, has died. That’s worse the even the impact of major hurricanes staying with the analogy. We all should continue to control what we can control to remain safe and hope this virus passes us by faster than any projections.
Submit your questions using one of these methods.
Email: brianmudd@iheartmedia.com
Twitter: @brianmuddradio
Facebook: Brian Mudd https://www.facebook.com/brian.mudd1
Photo by: Getty Images